BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional AM Win 40.6%
Draw 16.4%
Araguaína Win 43%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional AM1.23
Araguaína2.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WWDLW
16 GF / 9 GA
Araguaína Araguaína
WLDWL
31 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
2.82
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
4
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional AM Nacional AM 11 matches
Araguaína Araguaína 11 matches
Nacional AM Statistic Araguaína
7 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 3
16 Goals For 31
9 Goals Against 10
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 2.82
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
4 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Araguaína having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Araguaína.

Nacional AM Analysis

Nacional AM come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 20 points from 10 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Caio Mancha (3 goals), Anderson Alagoano (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Araguaína Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Araguaína arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 18 points after 10 matches. With 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 31:9, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Alan Calbergue (5 goals), Balotelli Kennedy (4 goals), G. Viana Pinheiro Rodrigues (4 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nacional AM won 1 times, Araguaína won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Nacional AM's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
H2H summary: Nacional AM wins 1, draws 1, Araguaína wins 0
Last matches: Nacional AM
25.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
0
1
L
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
Last matches: Araguaína
21.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
9
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
2
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
7
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
6
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
2
1
W
H2H: Nacional AM vs Araguaína
28.06.26
H2H
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
21.06.26
H2H
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
W
Last matches: Nacional AM
18.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
H2H at home: Nacional AM
28.06.26
H2H
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
Last matches: Araguaína
30.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
7
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
2
1
W
H2H away: Araguaína
28.06.26
H2H
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)