NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Referee: S. van der Eijk
NAC Breda
Match Timeline
Heerenveen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
36'
B. Kemper
NAC Breda
🔄
62'
J. Trenskow ↔ H. Petrov
Heerenveen
🔄
62'
L. Oyen ↔ L. Nordas
Heerenveen
VAR
69'
Dylan Vente
Heerenveen
VAR
73'
Boy Kemper
NAC Breda
74'
B. Kemper
NAC Breda
🔄
78'
L. Holtby ↔ B. Ghalidi
NAC Breda
🔄
78'
M. Soumano ↔ P. Reulen
NAC Breda
🟨
80'
Denis Odoi
NAC Breda
🔄
81'
R. Meerveld ↔ N. Courtens
Heerenveen
🔄
81'
V. Zagaritis ↔ E. Gurbuz
Heerenveen
🔄
82'
D. Odoi ↔ J. Candelaria
NAC Breda
🟨
90+3'
Nolhan Courtens
Heerenveen

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
NAC Breda Win 21.9%
Draw 12.6%
Heerenveen Win 65.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
NAC Breda1.2
Heerenveen1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
NAC Breda NAC Breda
WWDLW
30 GF / 55 GA
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WLDWL
57 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
15
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
24
4
Shots on Goal
5.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NAC Breda NAC Breda 32 matches
Heerenveen Heerenveen 32 matches
NAC Breda Statistic Heerenveen
5 Wins 14
10 Draws 8
17 Losses 10
30 Goals For 57
55 Goals Against 51
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
15 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 31
16 Over 2.5 24
8 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 4
14 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 5.44
13.88 Total Shots 14.97
5.72 Corners 5.5
49% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Heerenveen's more proactive style and NAC Breda's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Heerenveen carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 50 points while NAC Breda sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Heerenveen. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. NAC Breda have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

NAC Breda Analysis

With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, NAC Breda still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 30:55 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Mohamed Nassoh (5 goals), Sydney van Hooijdonk (5 goals), Boy Kemper (3 goals), with creative support from L. Holtby (5 assists), C. Brym (4 assists), Boy Kemper (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Heerenveen Analysis

Heerenveen are currently 7 in the standings with 50 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, while the 57:51 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Trenskow (12 goals), D. Vente (7 goals), L. Nordas (6 goals), with creative support from Joris van Overeem (9 assists), J. Trenskow (5 assists), L. Brouwers (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, NAC Breda won 4 times, Heerenveen won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from NAC Breda's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: NAC Breda 4-2-3-1 / Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: NAC Breda 4, Heerenveen 7
H2H summary: NAC Breda wins 4, draws 3, Heerenveen wins 8
Stats
NAC Breda NAC Breda
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
9
7 Corner Kicks 3
10 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 2
8 Blocked Shots 9
11 Shots insidebox 9
8 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
360 Total passes 397
258 Passes accurate 297
1.86 expected_goals 1.00
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

NAC Breda
Formation
Heerenveen
D. Bielica
D. Bielica
D. Odoi
D. Odoi
E. Mahmutovic
E. Mahmutovic
R. Hillen
R. Hillen
B. Kemper
⚽ 2
B. Kemper
M. Balard
M. Balard
C. Valerius
C. Valerius
K. Sowah
K. Sowah
L. Holtby
L. Holtby
A. Ayew
A. Ayew
M. Soumano
M. Soumano
B. Klaverboer
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
O. Braude
S. Kersten
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
V. Zagaritis
L. Brouwers
L. Brouwers
M. Linday
M. Linday
J. Trenskow
J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
R. Meerveld
L. Oyen
L. Oyen
D. Vente
D. Vente
NAC Breda 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
99
D. Bielica
G
3
D. Odoi
↓ 82' 🟨 80'
D
15
E. Mahmutovic
D
22
R. Hillen
D
4
B. Kemper
⚽ 36' ⚽ 74'
D
16
M. Balard
M
25
C. Valerius
M
14
K. Sowah
M
90
L. Holtby
↓ 78'
M
24
A. Ayew
F
9
M. Soumano
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
31
K. Lamprou
G
1
R. Kortsmit
G
20
F. Jensen
M
8
C. Leemans
M
7
C. Brym
F
32
J. Talvitie
F
55
B. Ghalidi
↑ 78'
F
19
A. Salama
F
21
J. Candelaria
↑ 82'
D
26
P. Reulen
↑ 78'
F
Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
B. Klaverboer
G
45
O. Braude
D
4
S. Kersten
D
3
M. Willemsen
D
19
V. Zagaritis
↓ 81'
D
8
L. Brouwers
M
16
M. Linday
M
20
J. Trenskow
↓ 62'
M
10
R. Meerveld
↓ 81'
M
11
L. Oyen
↓ 62'
M
9
D. Vente
F
Substitutes
31
N. Bakker
G
30
T. Schreuder
G
28
H. Petrov
↑ 62'
D
15
M. Egbring
D
36
N. Courtens
↑ 81' 🟨 90+3'
M
38
I. Mulder
D
35
I. Ahmed
M
50
E. Gurbuz
↑ 81'
F
18
L. Nordas
↑ 62'
F
40
C. Bonevacia
F
Last matches: NAC Breda
17.05.26
Ere
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
3
3
D
02.05.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Utrecht
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Ajax
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Fortuna Sittard
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PEC Zwolle
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
GO Ahead Eagles
0
6
L
08.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
3
3
D
27.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Telstar
0
3
L
21.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
0
W
14.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Heracles
1
0
W
06.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Excelsior
0
2
L
30.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Twente
2
2
D
24.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
17.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
NEC Nijmegen
3
4
L
10.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Groningen
0
0
D
20.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Telstar
0
1
L
14.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
1
D
07.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
29.11.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Excelsior
0
1
L
Last matches: Heerenveen
21.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
14.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
1
3
L
15.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
4
2
W
11.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
0
5
L
01.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
0
2
L
11.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
3
0
W
06.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
0
2
L
H2H: NAC Breda vs Heerenveen
11.05.26
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
W
24.10.25
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
3
3
D
12.01.25
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
4
L
31.08.24
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
4
0
L
07.02.23
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
L
01.08.20
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
0
W
12.05.19
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
2
1
L
22.12.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
4
2
W
29.04.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
3
0
W
16.12.17
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
1
0
L
04.04.15
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
0
0
D
13.12.14
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
L
22.02.14
H2H
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
0
0
D
10.08.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
L
02.03.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
L
Last matches: NAC Breda
25.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Ajax
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
0
D
08.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
3
3
D
21.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
0
W
06.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Excelsior
0
2
L
30.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Twente
2
2
D
17.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
NEC Nijmegen
3
4
L
20.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Telstar
0
1
L
14.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
1
D
22.11.25
Ere
NAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven
0
1
L
01.11.25
Ere
NAC Breda
GO Ahead Eagles
1
0
W
18.10.25
Ere
NAC Breda
PEC Zwolle
2
2
D
03.10.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Groningen
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Heracles
2
1
W
31.08.25
Ere
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
1
L
17.08.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Fortuna Sittard
2
1
W
H2H at home: NAC Breda
11.05.26
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
W
12.01.25
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
4
L
07.02.23
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
L
01.08.20
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
0
W
22.12.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
4
2
W
29.04.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
3
0
W
13.12.14
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
L
10.08.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
L
02.03.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
L
Last matches: Heerenveen
21.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
07.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
1
3
L
11.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
0
5
L
20.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
3
0
W
28.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
1
2
L
08.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
0
2
L
01.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
1
D
19.10.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
2
W
28.09.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
2
D
13.09.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
0
1
L
16.08.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
1
2
L
H2H away: Heerenveen
11.05.26
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
L
12.01.25
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
4
W
07.02.23
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
W
01.08.20
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
0
L
22.12.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
4
2
L
29.04.18
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
3
0
L
13.12.14
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
W
10.08.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
0
2
W
02.03.13
H2H
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
1
2
W

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie

Missing Players

NAC Breda 4 missing
-
L. Greiml
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
F. Jensen
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
B. Lucassen
Missing Fixture Knock
OUT
-
M. Nassoh
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Heerenveen 7 missing
-
L. Smans
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. van Axel Dongen
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
A. Noppert
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
M. Rivera
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
N. Hopland
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
J. van Overeem
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
V. Zagaritis
Questionable Injury
OUT