KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 80.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 56.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57%
-
BTTS BTTS No
80.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
56.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Mwatate United Win 57%
Draw 17.5%
Vihiga United FC Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mwatate United1
Vihiga United FC1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WWDLW
21 GF / 46 GA
Vihiga United FC Vihiga United FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
12
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mwatate United Mwatate United 28 matches
Vihiga United FC Vihiga United FC 27 matches
Mwatate United Statistic Vihiga United FC
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 8
17 Losses 13
21 Goals For 22
46 Goals Against 37
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
12 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vihiga United FC having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vihiga United FC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Mwatate United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Mwatate United Analysis

With 21 points from 28 games and a place of 19, Mwatate United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 21:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vihiga United FC Analysis

With 20 points from 28 games and a place of 20, Vihiga United FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 22:40 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mwatate United won 4 times, Vihiga United FC won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:6 from Mwatate United's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.5%)
H2H summary: Mwatate United wins 4, draws 1, Vihiga United FC wins 1
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Vihiga United FC
13.06.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.06.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Luanda Villa
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Naivas
0
2
L
27.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
23.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Soy United
1
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
01.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
3K
2
3
L
26.04.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Equity Bank
0
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
MCF
0
0
D
03.04.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
29.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
21.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
MOFA
2
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
08.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Migori Youth
0
2
L
01.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Nzoia Sugar
0
4
L
14.02.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Talanta
1
3
L
01.02.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
24.01.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
H2H: Mwatate United vs Vihiga United FC
18.04.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.01.26
H2H
Vihiga United FC
Mwatate United
1
2
W
02.07.23
H2H
Vihiga United FC
Mwatate United
1
3
W
20.03.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
5
0
W
27.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
08.01.22
H2H
Vihiga United FC
Mwatate United
1
1
D
Last matches: Mwatate United
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
1
3
L
03.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
09.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
12.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
L
04.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
H2H at home: Mwatate United
18.04.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
20.03.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
5
0
W
27.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
Last matches: Vihiga United FC
13.06.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Naivas
0
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
MOFA
2
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
14.02.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Talanta
1
3
L
17.01.26
Sup
Vihiga United FC
MCF
3
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Equity Bank
1
2
L
13.12.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
3K
2
4
L
03.12.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Soy United
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Migori Youth
1
1
D
09.11.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
25.10.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
28.09.25
Sup
Vihiga United FC
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
H2H away: Vihiga United FC
18.04.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
L
20.03.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
5
0
L
27.04.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
1
2
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation