KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mwatate United Win 26.8%
Draw 3.3%
Naivas Win 69.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mwatate United0.79
Naivas1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WWDLW
27 GF / 55 GA
Naivas Naivas
WLDWL
41 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
15
BTTS Yes
12
16
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mwatate United Mwatate United 34 matches
Naivas Naivas 34 matches
Mwatate United Statistic Naivas
6 Wins 15
7 Draws 9
21 Losses 10
27 Goals For 41
55 Goals Against 27
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
15 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 16
16 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 14
17 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Naivas's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Naivas having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Naivas. Naivas look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Naivas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 54 points while Mwatate United sit 20 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mwatate United Analysis

Mwatate United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 25 points from 34 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 27:55, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Naivas Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Naivas have collected 54 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 41:27 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Mwatate United won 2 times, Naivas won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:9 from Mwatate United's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
H2H summary: Mwatate United wins 2, draws 1, Naivas wins 2
Last matches: Mwatate United
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
Last matches: Naivas
01.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
24.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
3
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
01.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
18.04.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
28.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
3
3
D
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
3
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
2
4
L
11.01.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
2
1
W
H2H: Mwatate United vs Naivas
25.10.25
H2H
Naivas
Mwatate United
3
1
L
08.04.23
H2H
Naivas
Mwatate United
0
1
W
03.12.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
5
L
26.06.22
H2H
Naivas
Mwatate United
0
0
D
09.02.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
2
1
W
Last matches: Mwatate United
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
1
3
L
03.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
09.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
12.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
L
04.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
H2H at home: Mwatate United
03.12.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
5
L
09.02.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
2
1
W
Last matches: Naivas
24.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
2
1
W
12.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
30.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
15.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
0
0
D
29.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
11.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
H2H away: Naivas
03.12.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
5
W
09.02.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Naivas
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 24 5 7 54:27 27 77
W W W L W
2 36 22 7 7 58:25 33 73
W D D W W
3 36 23 3 10 49:31 18 72
L D W W L
4 36 20 11 5 53:26 27 71
W W D D W
5 36 16 14 6 50:29 21 62
D D L W L
6 36 17 9 10 45:27 18 60
W W W W D
7 36 16 9 11 57:41 16 57
L L L W L
8 36 15 9 12 46:37 9 54
L W W W W
9 36 15 8 13 31:30 1 53
D D L L D
10 36 13 9 14 30:27 3 48
L D W L D
11 36 11 14 11 36:35 1 47
W L L L D
12 36 12 6 18 29:49 -20 42
W L L W D
13 36 11 8 17 32:38 -6 41
W L W L D
14 36 9 12 15 31:36 -5 39
L D D L L
15 36 9 9 18 21:45 -24 36
L D W D D
16 36 9 8 19 29:50 -21 35
W W L L D
17 36 8 8 20 22:47 -25 32
L D W L L
18 36 8 10 18 22:38 -16 31
W L D W L
19 36 9 8 19 28:53 -25 29
L W L W W
20 36 6 7 23 27:59 -32 25
L L L L D