KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mwatate United Win 28.4%
Draw 14.2%
Mombasa Elite Win 57.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mwatate United0.87
Mombasa Elite1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WWDLW
27 GF / 54 GA
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite
WLDWL
46 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
15
BTTS Yes
11
16
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mwatate United Mwatate United 33 matches
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 32 matches
Mwatate United Statistic Mombasa Elite
6 Wins 21
7 Draws 2
20 Losses 9
27 Goals For 46
54 Goals Against 30
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
15 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 21
16 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 13
16 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Mombasa Elite's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Mombasa Elite carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 68 points while Mwatate United sit 20 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Mwatate United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mombasa Elite. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mombasa Elite having the stronger overall control.

Mwatate United Analysis

With 25 points from 33 games and a place of 20, Mwatate United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 20 defeats with a 27:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mombasa Elite Analysis

Mombasa Elite come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 68 points after 33 matches. They have recorded 22 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, with a 48:30 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mwatate United won 2 times, Mombasa Elite won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:8 from Mwatate United's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
H2H summary: Mwatate United wins 2, draws 0, Mombasa Elite wins 4
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
H2H: Mwatate United vs Mombasa Elite
24.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.12.25
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
3
0
L
28.06.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
15.03.23
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
2
1
L
12.06.22
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
1
3
W
06.03.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
Last matches: Mwatate United
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
1
3
L
03.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
09.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
12.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
L
04.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
H2H at home: Mwatate United
24.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
28.06.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
06.03.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
0
1
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
2
3
L
02.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
29.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
0
4
L
15.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
02.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
2
L
27.09.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
1
0
W
H2H away: Mombasa Elite
24.05.26
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
W
28.06.23
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
2
0
L
06.03.22
H2H
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation