KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 40.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77%
-
BTTS Yes
57.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
40.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mwatate United Win 15.3%
Draw 7.7%
3K Win 77%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mwatate United0.74
3K1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WWDLW
27 GF / 57 GA
3K 3K
WLDWL
58 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
15
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mwatate United Mwatate United 35 matches
3K 3K 36 matches
Mwatate United Statistic 3K
6 Wins 22
7 Draws 7
22 Losses 7
27 Goals For 58
57 Goals Against 25
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
15 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 14
10 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 17
18 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by 3K's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward 3K having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. 3K carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 73 points while Mwatate United sit 20 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring 3K.

Mwatate United Analysis

Mwatate United sit 20 with 25 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 23 defeats, and the 27:59 goal record continues to suggest poor form . Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

3K Analysis

3K arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 73 points after 36 matches. The record of 22 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 58:25 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mwatate United won 0 times, 3K won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:4 from Mwatate United's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
H2H summary: Mwatate United wins 0, draws 1, 3K wins 1
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
Last matches: 3K
13.06.26
Sup
3K
Migori Youth
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
3K
Talanta
3
2
W
27.05.26
Sup
3K
Mombasa Elite
0
0
D
23.05.26
Sup
3K
Equity Bank
0
0
D
16.05.26
Sup
3K
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
3K
Fortune Sacco
2
1
W
06.05.26
Sup
3K
MCF
2
0
W
01.05.26
Sup
3K
Vihiga United FC
3
2
W
26.04.26
Sup
3K
Kabati Youth FC
3
0
W
18.04.26
Sup
3K
Naivas
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
3K
Nairobi City Stars
3
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
3K
Nzoia Sugar
3
1
W
25.03.26
Sup
3K
Gucha Stars
2
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
3K
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
15.03.26
Sup
3K
MOFA
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
3K
Soy United
2
1
W
21.02.26
Sup
3K
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
3K
Luanda Villa
5
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
3K
MOFA
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
3K
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
H2H: Mwatate United vs 3K
07.06.26
H2H
Mwatate United
3K
0
3
L
02.11.25
H2H
3K
Mwatate United
1
1
D
Last matches: Mwatate United
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
21.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
1
3
L
03.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
09.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
12.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
L
04.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
H2H at home: Mwatate United
07.06.26
H2H
Mwatate United
3K
0
3
L
Last matches: 3K
27.05.26
Sup
3K
Mombasa Elite
0
0
D
16.05.26
Sup
3K
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
01.05.26
Sup
3K
Vihiga United FC
3
2
W
18.04.26
Sup
3K
Naivas
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
3K
Nairobi City Stars
3
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
3K
Gucha Stars
2
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
3K
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
21.02.26
Sup
3K
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
3K
MOFA
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
3K
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
21.12.25
Sup
3K
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
17.12.25
Sup
3K
MCF
0
1
L
07.12.25
Sup
3K
Equity Bank
1
2
L
30.11.25
Sup
3K
Soy United
0
1
L
17.11.25
Sup
3K
Luanda Villa
2
0
W
29.10.25
Sup
3K
Migori Youth
1
1
D
11.10.25
Sup
3K
Talanta
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
3K
Nzoia Sugar
1
2
L
H2H away: 3K
07.06.26
H2H
Mwatate United
3K
0
3
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2
3K Away
38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation