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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
18.10.2026 14:45
De Geusselt

MVV vs Heracles Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
MVV Win 34%
Draw 11.6%
Heracles Win 54.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
MVV1.31
Heracles2.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
MVV MVV
WWDLW
24 GF / 37 GA
Heracles Heracles
WLDWL
38 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
2.92
1.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
11
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
10
2.9
Shots on Goal
8.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MVV MVV 19 matches
Heracles Heracles 13 matches
MVV Statistic Heracles
6 Wins 10
5 Draws 1
8 Losses 2
24 Goals For 38
37 Goals Against 18
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 2.92
1.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
11 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 12
11 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 1
2.9 Shots On Goal 8.8
9.9 Total Shots 22.3
4.3 Corners 8.2
55% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Heracles's more proactive style and MVV's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heracles. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Heracles carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 25 points while MVV sit 7 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. MVV have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

MVV Analysis

MVV sit 7 with 16 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 13:20, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through O. Dumont (4 goals), E. Sierra (1 goals), N. El Hamdaoui (1 goals), with creative support from R. Klaasen (2 assists), O. Dumont (1 assists), E. Sierra (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Heracles Analysis

Heracles come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 25 points after 10 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 31:12 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on T. van Gilst (7 goals), Jean-Paul N'Djoli (6 goals), J. N'djoli (5 goals), with creative support from C. Abbas (4 assists), D. van der Kust (3 assists), T. Bruns (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, MVV won 0 times, Heracles won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from MVV's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: MVV 4-2-3-1 / Heracles 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: MVV wins 0, draws 1, Heracles wins 1

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 31:12 19 25
W D W L W
2 10 7 1 2 22:7 15 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 26:14 12 21
W W L W W
4 10 6 1 3 22:18 4 19
W D W L L
5 10 5 2 3 20:19 1 17
W D W W L
6 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
D L W D W
7
MVV Home
10 5 1 4 13:20 -7 16
L L W L L
8 10 5 0 5 22:17 5 15
W L W L W
9 10 3 5 2 19:15 4 14
L D L W W
10 10 4 2 4 15:15 0 14
L D L W L
11 10 4 1 5 22:18 4 13
L W D L W
12 10 3 4 3 15:17 -2 13
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:15 0 12
W W L W L
14 10 3 2 5 14:18 -4 11
W D L W L
15 10 3 2 5 15:22 -7 11
L D L W W
16 10 3 2 5 13:23 -10 11
W D W L W
17 10 2 3 5 16:19 -3 9
L D L L W
18 10 2 2 6 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
19 10 2 2 6 13:27 -14 8
L D W L L
20 10 2 1 7 16:23 -7 7
L L W W D
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