ECUADOR LIGA PRO
20.07.2026 19:00
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Robert Cabrera, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
R. Carrillo · Assist: J. Hernandez
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
18'
Bryan Quinonez
Orense SC
🟨
32'
Stéfano Callegari
Orense SC
45'
M. Bermudez
Orense SC
🔄
46'
B. Quinonez ↔ S. Quinonez
Orense SC
49'
R. Carrillo · Assist: M. Perea
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
70'
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
Orense SC
🔄
71'
A. Zambrano ↔ B. Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
71'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez ↔ L. Garces
Orense SC
🔄
71'
A. Herrera ↔ J. Vera
Orense SC
🔄
77'
J. Hernandez ↔ J. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
78'
S. Vasquez ↔ D. Armas
Orense SC
🔄
78'
R. Jaramilo ↔ D. Quintero
Orense SC
🔄
81'
R. Ibarra ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
83'
Jefferson Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
85'
Jeremy Cusme
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
89'
Alan Lorenzo
Orense SC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 32.8%
Draw 5.5%
Orense SC Win 61.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.3
Orense SC1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
24 GF / 29 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
22 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
12
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
10
3.53
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 19 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 19 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Orense SC
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
24 Goals For 22
29 Goals Against 26
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
12 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 5
3.53 Shots On Goal 3.74
12.42 Total Shots 9.63
4.37 Corners 3.26
47.4% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Orense SC in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Orense SC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Mushuc Runa SC have collected 21 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 24:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 23 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:24 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), A. Herrera (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 6 times, Orense SC won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:18 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Orense SC 5-3-2
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 6, draws 5, Orense SC wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs