ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Robert Cabrera, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
R. Carrillo · Assist: J. Hernandez
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
18'
Bryan Quinonez
Orense SC
🟨
32'
Stéfano Callegari
Orense SC
45'
M. Bermudez
Orense SC
🔄
46'
B. Quinonez ↔ S. Quinonez
Orense SC
49'
R. Carrillo · Assist: M. Perea
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
70'
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
Orense SC
🔄
71'
A. Zambrano ↔ B. Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
71'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez ↔ L. Garces
Orense SC
🔄
71'
A. Herrera ↔ J. Vera
Orense SC
🔄
77'
J. Hernandez ↔ J. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
78'
S. Vasquez ↔ D. Armas
Orense SC
🔄
78'
R. Jaramilo ↔ D. Quintero
Orense SC
🔄
81'
R. Ibarra ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
83'
Jefferson Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
85'
Jeremy Cusme
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
89'
Alan Lorenzo
Orense SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 32.8%
Draw 5.5%
Orense SC Win 61.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.3
Orense SC1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
24 GF / 29 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
22 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
12
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
10
3.53
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 19 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 19 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Orense SC
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
24 Goals For 22
29 Goals Against 26
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
12 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 5
3.53 Shots On Goal 3.74
12.42 Total Shots 9.63
4.37 Corners 3.26
47.4% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Orense SC in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Orense SC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Mushuc Runa SC have collected 21 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 24:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 23 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:24 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), A. Herrera (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 6 times, Orense SC won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:18 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Orense SC 5-3-2
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 6, draws 5, Orense SC wins 4
Stats
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC Orense SC
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 4
16 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Goal 2
9 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 5
7 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
336 Total passes 354
274 Passes accurate 275
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mushuc Runa SC
Formation
Orense SC
R. Formento
R. Formento
C. Angulo
C. Angulo
R. Biojo
R. Biojo
J. Cusme
J. Cusme
J. Hernandez
🎯
J. Hernandez
T. Minda
T. Minda
E. Davila
E. Davila
A. Zambrano
A. Zambrano
M. Perea
🎯
M. Perea
R. Ibarra
R. Ibarra
R. Carrillo
⚽ 2
R. Carrillo
J. Ortiz
J. Ortiz
B. Quinonez
B. Quinonez
S. Callegari
S. Callegari
A. Lorenzo
A. Lorenzo
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
G. Rostagno
G. Rostagno
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
S. Vasquez
S. Vasquez
R. Jaramilo
R. Jaramilo
A. Herrera
A. Herrera
M. Bermudez
M. Bermudez
Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
25
R. Formento
G
99
C. Angulo
D
4
R. Biojo
D
50
J. Cusme
🟨 85'
D
33
J. Hernandez
🎯 9' ↓ 77'
D
7
T. Minda
M
5
E. Davila
M
8
A. Zambrano
↓ 71'
M
28
M. Perea
🎯 49'
M
30
R. Ibarra
↓ 81'
F
9
R. Carrillo
⚽ 9' ⚽ 49'
F
Substitutes
42
W. Pabon
G
22
J. Collaguazo
12
F. Carabali
↑ 81'
D
61
J. Caicedo
↑ 77' 🟨 83'
F
23
L. Lemos
M
26
K. Peralta
D
2
F. Flor
D
19
B. Corozo
↑ 71'
M
37
J. L. Mancilla Quinones
D
18
J. Gonzalez
M
52
D. Merino
M
Orense SC 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
22
J. Ortiz
G
2
B. Quinonez
↓ 46' 🟨 18'
D
6
S. Callegari
🟨 32'
D
5
A. Lorenzo
🟨 89'
D
15
B. Caicedo
D
21
G. Rostagno
🟨 70'
M
54
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
↓ 71'
M
7
S. Vasquez
↓ 78'
M
25
R. Jaramilo
↓ 78'
M
11
A. Herrera
↓ 71'
M
19
M. Bermudez
⚽ 45'
Substitutes
12
R. Silva
G
8
D. Armas
↑ 78'
M
77
B. Vinan
D
14
E. Pluas
M
4
S. Quinonez
↑ 46'
D
51
C. Ortiz
50
E. Hernandez
M
33
D. Quintero
↑ 78'
F
52
Y. Bravo
D
53
L. Garces
↑ 71'
F
59
J. Vera
↑ 71'
M
57
S. Mairongo
M
Last matches: Mushuc Runa SC
22.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
0
D
16.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
10.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
01.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
2
1
W
27.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
0
2
L
24.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
1
1
D
14.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
1
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Independiente del Valle
1
4
L
06.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
31.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Aucas
0
0
D
23.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Guayaquil City FC
2
2
D
17.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
12.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de Quito
1
3
L
03.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
4
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
1
0
W
07.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
2
2
D
22.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
2
0
W
Last matches: Orense SC
23.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
16.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
H2H: Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
20.07.26
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
W
19.03.26
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
L
14.09.25
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
5
L
06.03.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
0
W
06.04.24
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
1
W
13.08.22
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
1
1
D
03.04.22
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
25.09.21
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D
12.04.21
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
W
08.12.20
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D
01.09.20
H2H
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
W
Last matches: Mushuc Runa SC
16.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
27.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
0
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Independiente del Valle
1
4
L
31.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Aucas
0
0
D
23.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Guayaquil City FC
2
2
D
12.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de Quito
1
3
L
25.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
4
1
W
18.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
1
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Universidad Catolica
0
0
D
H2H at home: Mushuc Runa SC
20.07.26
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
5
L
06.03.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
1
W
13.08.22
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
1
1
D
25.09.21
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D
08.12.20
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D
Last matches: Orense SC
23.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
H2H away: Orense SC
20.07.26
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
5
W
06.03.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
L
22.09.24
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
3
1
L
13.08.22
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
1
1
D
25.09.21
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D
08.12.20
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
0
0
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 26 12 6 8 33:26 7 42
L D W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 10 7 9 29:29 0 37
W D W W W
8 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
9 26 8 9 9 32:34 -2 33
D D W W L
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 26 9 5 12 22:32 -10 32
D L L L W
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 26 8 2 16 23:37 -14 26
L L L L W
15 26 6 6 14 17:28 -11 24
L L D L L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs