ECUADOR LIGA PRO
27.07.2026 19:00
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
51'
Ronny Biojo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
63'
D. Coronel ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
63'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
68'
T. Minda ↔ J. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
68'
R. Ibarra ↔ L. Lemos
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
73'
V. Branda ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
75'
M. Perea ↔ K. Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
82'
J. Bravo ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
🟨
83'
Rodrigo Morinigo
Libertad
84'
X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
90+1'
E. Davila ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
90'
C. Orejuela · Assist: E. Caicedo
Libertad

Mushuc Runa SC vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
80.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 38.3%
Draw 27.7%
Libertad Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.27
Libertad1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
27 GF / 31 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
19 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
14
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
9
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 21 matches
Libertad Libertad 21 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Libertad
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
27 Goals For 19
31 Goals Against 26
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
14 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 8
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.48
12.43 Total Shots 10.48
4.52 Corners 3.62
47.4% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Libertad. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. Libertad arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC sit 14 with 21 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 24:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

With 21 points from 20 games and a place of 15, Libertad still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 18:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (4 goals), G. Cortéz (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.3%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Libertad 5-4-1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs