ECUADOR LIGA PRO
28.08.2026 20:30
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Delfin SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Bryan Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
24'
M. Perea ↔ T. Minda
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
26'
Anthony Bedoya
Delfin SC
🟨
30'
Emerson Espinoza
Delfin SC
VAR
45+5'
Nazareno Bazán
Mushuc Runa SC
61'
N. Bazan · Assist: T. Minda
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
70'
T. Ozaeta ↔ L. Castro
Delfin SC
🔄
70'
E. Espinoza ↔ J. Arce
Delfin SC
🔄
79'
F. Mina ↔ K. Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
80'
N. Bazan ↔ E. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
82'
Renato Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
82'
Enzo Rubio
Delfin SC
🟨
90+7'
Franco Ayunta
Delfin SC
VAR
90+6'
Franco Ayunta
Delfin SC
🔄
90+7'
R. Ibarra ↔ L. Lemos
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
90+7'
B. Corozo ↔ J. Gonzalez
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
90+3'
E. Rubio ↔ B. Hernandez
Delfin SC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.5%
Odds 1.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.5%
1.11
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.00
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
1.32
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 51.2%
Draw 23.3%
Delfin SC Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.15
Delfin SC0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
32 GF / 34 GA
Delfin SC Delfin SC
WLDWL
18 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
15
BTTS Yes
9
14
Over 2.5
7
3.77
Shots on Goal
3.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 26 matches
Delfin SC Delfin SC 27 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Delfin SC
8 Wins 7
9 Draws 6
9 Losses 14
32 Goals For 18
34 Goals Against 28
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
15 BTTS Yes 9
18 Over 1.5 10
14 Over 2.5 7
9 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 12
3.77 Shots On Goal 3.19
12.65 Total Shots 10.85
4.77 Corners 3.42
48.3% Ball Possession 39.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Delfin SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Delfin SC.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC are currently 9 in the standings with 32 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 32:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronie Carrillo (6 goals), Renato Ibarra (4 goals), Cristopher Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Renato Ibarra (2 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Delfin SC Analysis

Delfin SC sit 15 with 24 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 17:27, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Erick Mendoza (3 goals), Kevin Ushiña (2 goals), Franco Ayunta (1 goals), with creative support from Kevin Ushiña (2 assists), Franco Ayunta (1 assists), Thiago Ozaeta (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 7 times, Delfin SC won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:21 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.7%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Delfin SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 7, draws 1, Delfin SC wins 7

Standings

Liga Pro: Relegation Group
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
11 31 9 12 10 36:39 -3 39
D L D D W
12 31 10 7 14 26:38 -12 37
D D L W L
13 31 9 6 16 37:49 -12 33
L L W L L
14 31 10 3 18 29:43 -14 33
D W L L W
15 31 7 8 16 20:32 -12 29
D D L W L
16 31 6 6 19 19:43 -24 24
W D L L W
Relegation - Serie B