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GERMANY › 3. LIGA
10.10.2026 14:30
MSV-Arena
Referee: Leonidas Exuzidis, Germany
MSV Duisburg
Match Timeline
Hoffenheim II
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
T. Fleckstein
Hoffenheim II
🟨
24'
Diren Dağdeviren
Hoffenheim II
⚽
39'
B. Makanda · Assist: T. Poller
Hoffenheim II
🔄
40'
D. Dagdeviren ↔ M. Moore
Hoffenheim II
🟨
43'
Joshua Bitter
MSV Duisburg
🟨
44'
Sean Dulic
Hoffenheim II
🔄
46'
C. Coskun ↔ F. Christensen
MSV Duisburg
🔄
46'
C. Noss ↔ R. Safi
MSV Duisburg
🔄
46'
M. Ens ↔ P. Remmert
MSV Duisburg
🟨
59'
Tiago Poller
Hoffenheim II
🔄
63'
C. Viet ↔ A. Casar
MSV Duisburg
🟨
66'
Jykese Fields
Hoffenheim II
🔄
67'
Y. Zor ↔ L. Wagenbach
Hoffenheim II
🔄
67'
J. Fields ↔ J. Dedic
Hoffenheim II
🟨
69'
Lion Wagenbach
Hoffenheim II
🟨
71'
Valentin Lässig
Hoffenheim II
⚽
71'
P. Remmert
MSV Duisburg
🔄
72'
D. Kother ↔ P. Sussek
MSV Duisburg
⚽
72'
P. Remmert · Assist: L. Lobinger
MSV Duisburg
🟨
75'
Ramien Safi
MSV Duisburg
⚽
77'
P. Remmert · Assist: R. Bulic
MSV Duisburg
🟨
78'
Peter Remmert
MSV Duisburg
🔄
82'
T. Spranger ↔ M. Theuer
Hoffenheim II
🔄
82'
T. Poller ↔ A. Honajzer
Hoffenheim II

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
MSV Duisburg Win 64.7%
Draw 4.9%
Hoffenheim II Win 30.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
MSV Duisburg1.82
Hoffenheim II1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg
W W L W W
12 GF / 5 GA
Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II
W W D L W
10 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
2.14
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
9
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
7
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 14 matches
Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 12 matches
MSV Duisburg Statistic Hoffenheim II
9 Wins 6
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 5
30 Goals For 23
17 Goals Against 16
2.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
9 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.43
10.14 Total Shots 11.43
4 Corners 4
35% Ball Possession 38.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. MSV Duisburg arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 18 points compared to Hoffenheim II in 5 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. MSV Duisburg come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Hoffenheim II.

MSV Duisburg Analysis

MSV Duisburg approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 18 points after 7 outings. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 19:7, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Hoffenheim II Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 13 points from 7 games, Hoffenheim II bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 14:8 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, MSV Duisburg won 1 times, Hoffenheim II won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from MSV Duisburg's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: MSV Duisburg 4-2-3-1 / Hoffenheim II 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: MSV Duisburg wins 1, draws 0, Hoffenheim II wins 1

Standings

3 Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 27:12 15 25
D W W W W
2 10 6 2 2 27:14 13 20
D D W W W
3 10 5 3 2 18:13 5 18
L W D D W
4 10 5 2 3 24:17 7 17
W L D W D
5 10 5 1 4 20:15 5 16
W L L W W
6 10 4 3 3 17:19 -2 15
L L W D W
7 10 4 2 4 17:18 -1 14
W W D D L
8 10 4 2 4 15:16 -1 14
W L L W L
9 10 4 2 4 13:15 -2 14
W W L L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
L W D L W
11 10 4 1 5 16:16 0 13
L L W W L
12 10 3 3 4 18:21 -3 12
L L D L D
13 10 3 3 4 12:15 -3 12
D W W L W
14 10 3 3 4 15:19 -4 12
L D D W D
15 10 3 3 4 12:18 -6 12
W D L L D
16 10 3 2 5 15:19 -4 11
W D L L W
17 10 3 2 5 12:17 -5 11
D W D L L
18 10 2 4 4 20:19 1 10
D D W D L
19 10 2 4 4 8:11 -3 10
L L D W L
20 10 1 3 6 13:23 -10 6
D D L L L
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation