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17.10.2026 13:00
Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

MP vs JäPS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.97
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.9%
1.97 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.61 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
MP Win 56.9%
Draw 14.4%
JäPS Win 28.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
MP1.31
JäPS1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
MP MP
WWDLW
39 GF / 45 GA
JäPS JäPS
WLDWL
28 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
17
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MP MP 32 matches
JäPS JäPS 31 matches
MP Statistic JäPS
11 Wins 14
7 Draws 2
14 Losses 15
39 Goals For 28
45 Goals Against 45
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
17 BTTS Yes 9
23 Over 1.5 19
13 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. JäPS arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward JäPS having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors JäPS.

MP Analysis

From their first 26 matches, MP have collected 30 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, while the 28:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

JäPS Analysis

JäPS approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 35 points from 26 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 13 defeats with a 23:40 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, MP won 4 times, JäPS won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:26 from MP's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
H2H summary: MP wins 4, draws 5, JäPS wins 6

Standings

Ykkösliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 4 4 48:26 22 58
L D W W W
2 26 14 7 5 41:21 20 49
L D L W D
3 26 14 5 7 50:29 21 47
W L W D L
4 26 12 8 6 36:21 15 44
W D L W L
5
JäPS Away
26 11 2 13 23:40 -17 35
L L W L W
6
MP Home
26 8 6 12 28:36 -8 30
D D W D W
7 26 8 5 13 29:44 -15 29
L D L D D
8 26 6 8 12 37:37 0 26
W W L L D
9 26 6 7 13 31:46 -15 25
D W W L D
10 26 3 8 15 21:44 -23 17
W D L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Promotion)
Ykkosliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkonen