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19.09.2026 18:15
Motor Lublin Arena
Referee: Pawel Malec, Poland
Motor Lublin
Match Timeline
Gornik Zabrze
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Ivo Rodrigues
Motor Lublin
🔄
34'
I. Rodrigues ↔ M. Legowski
Motor Lublin
🟨
48'
Rafał Janicki
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
53'
Janis Antiste
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
63'
J. Antiste ↔ E. Prekop
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
71'
K. Urbanski ↔ P. Bernardo
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
72'
M. Ndiaye ↔ Rony Lopes
Motor Lublin
🔄
72'
M. Aiko ↔ Fabio Ronaldo
Motor Lublin
🔄
82'
M. Khlan ↔ Z. Inoussa
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
83'
Peter Federico ↔ Y. Ikia Dimi
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
90+3'
Marek Kristián Bartoš
Motor Lublin
🟨
90+1'
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
90+8'
K. Lukoszek ↔ P. Meyer
Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Motor Lublin Win 29.8%
Draw 8.1%
Gornik Zabrze Win 62.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Motor Lublin1.72
Gornik Zabrze1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
L L L D W
5 GF / 8 GA
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
W W W W L
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
2.14
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
11
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
13
4.38
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 14 matches
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 22 matches
Motor Lublin Statistic Gornik Zabrze
7 Wins 13
2 Draws 3
5 Losses 6
30 Goals For 34
20 Goals Against 24
2.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
11 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 3
4.38 Shots On Goal 4.5
14.75 Total Shots 12.71
4.25 Corners 5.64
46.1% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Gornik Zabrze's more proactive style and Motor Lublin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 15 points while Motor Lublin sit 15 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Gornik Zabrze look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Motor Lublin expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Gornik Zabrze in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gornik Zabrze having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gornik Zabrze.

Motor Lublin Analysis

With 5 points from 8 games and a place of 15, Motor Lublin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 9:15, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through K. Czubak (5 goals), K. Lukoszek (1 goals), with creative support from M. Ndiaye (3 assists), Ivo Rodrigues (2 assists), K. Lukoszek (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 15 points from 6 games, Gornik Zabrze bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, with a 12:7 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on K. Urbański (3 goals), Peter (2 goals), Josema Sánchez (1 goals), with creative support from Josema Sánchez (1 assists), R. Janicki (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Motor Lublin won 2 times, Gornik Zabrze won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Motor Lublin's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1 / Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
H2H summary: Motor Lublin wins 2, draws 1, Gornik Zabrze wins 1

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 9 1 1 29:10 19 28
W W W W L
2 12 8 3 1 21:11 10 27
D D W D W
3 11 7 3 1 19:9 10 24
W W W W W
4 12 6 5 1 23:11 12 23
L D W W D
5 12 6 3 3 19:15 4 21
W D L W W
6 12 6 2 4 22:18 4 20
W D W L W
7 12 5 4 3 15:15 0 19
D W L L W
8 12 6 0 6 22:17 5 18
L L W W W
9 12 5 3 4 14:18 -4 18
W L L W L
10 11 5 0 6 14:17 -3 15
W L L L L
11 11 4 2 5 10:16 -6 14
L W L W W
12 12 3 4 5 17:21 -4 13
D W W D L
13 12 3 3 6 14:19 -5 12
L D W L L
14 12 1 8 3 15:16 -1 11
D D L D D
15 12 2 3 7 16:22 -6 9
W L L L L
16 12 2 2 8 16:23 -7 8
L L L W D
17 12 2 2 8 12:28 -16 8
L L L L L
18 12 2 0 10 16:28 -12 6
L W L L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation