PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Referee: H. Malheiro
Moreirense
Match Timeline
Estrela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Caio Secco
Moreirense
13'
Jovane
Estrela
🟨
25'
Rodrigo Pinho
Estrela
🟨
31'
Max Scholze
Estrela
36'
I. Stoica
Estrela
🟨
40'
Rodrigo Alonso
Moreirense
VAR
44'
Landerson
Moreirense
45'
Alanzinho
Moreirense
🔄
46'
M. Stjepanovic ↔ N. John
Moreirense
🔄
46'
A. Assis ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🟨
50'
Fabiano Souza
Moreirense
🔄
64'
Rodrigo Pinho ↔ S. van Hooijdonk
Estrela
🔄
68'
Alanzinho ↔ L. Semedo
Moreirense
🔄
68'
Landerson ↔ Kiko
Moreirense
🔄
70'
B. Langa ↔ J. Encada
Estrela
🔄
70'
Jovane ↔ K. Jansson
Estrela
73'
L. Semedo · Assist: Kiko
Moreirense
🔄
76'
Fabiano ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🟨
77'
Jefferson Encada
Estrela
🔄
81'
A. Marcus ↔ T. Moustier
Estrela
🔄
81'
A. Sola ↔ J. Meireles
Estrela
🟨
90+4'
Gilberto Batista
Moreirense
🟨
90+4'
Otavio
Estrela
90'
Maracas · Assist: Rodri
Moreirense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 84.2%
Draw 11.3%
Estrela Win 4.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.32
Estrela1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
34 GF / 45 GA
Estrela Estrela
WLDWL
34 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
15
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
16
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 31 matches
Estrela Estrela 31 matches
Moreirense Statistic Estrela
11 Wins 6
6 Draws 10
14 Losses 15
34 Goals For 34
45 Goals Against 51
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
15 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 14
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.65
8.58 Total Shots 11.26
3.55 Corners 3.39
48.2% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Estrela. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Estrela in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estrela having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Moreirense Analysis

Moreirense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 39 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 34:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Travassos (5 goals), Alanzinho (4 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Estrela Analysis

With 28 points from 31 games and a place of 15, Estrela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats with a 34:51 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jovane Cabral (6 goals), Kikas (6 goals), S. Lopes Cabral (6 goals), with creative support from S. Lopes Cabral (5 assists), A. Marcus (5 assists), Paulo Moreira (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 4 times, Estrela won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Moreirense's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-4-2 / Estrela 4-3-3
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 4, draws 4, Estrela wins 1
Stats
Moreirense Moreirense
Estrela Estrela
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
1 Corner Kicks 4
18 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 0
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 8
5 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
562 Total passes 286
494 Passes accurate 207
1.68 expected_goals 2.75
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Moreirense
Formation
Estrela
Caio
Caio
Fabiano
Fabiano
G. Batista
G. Batista
Maracas
Maracas
Travassos
Travassos
A. Assis
A. Assis
Rodri
🎯
Rodri
Kiko Bondoso
Kiko Bondoso
M. Stjepanovic
M. Stjepanovic
Landerson
Landerson
Alanzinho
Alanzinho
R. Ribeiro
R. Ribeiro
M. Scholze
M. Scholze
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick
Otavio
Otavio
B. Langa
B. Langa
P. Moreira
P. Moreira
A. Sola
A. Sola
A. Marcus
A. Marcus
Jovane
Jovane
I. Stoica
I. Stoica
Rodrigo Pinho
Rodrigo Pinho
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Caio
🟨 12'
G
70
Fabiano
↓ 76' 🟨 50'
D
66
G. Batista
🟨 90+4'
D
26
Maracas
⚽ 90'
D
2
Travassos
D
25
A. Assis
↓ 46'
M
21
Rodri
🎯 90' 🟨 40'
M
10
Kiko Bondoso
M
8
M. Stjepanovic
↓ 46'
M
78
Landerson
↓ 68'
M
11
Alanzinho
⚽ 45' ↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Ferreira
G
23
N. John
↑ 46'
M
4
Kevyn Monteiro
D
7
C. Teguia
F
9
L. Semedo
⚽ 73' ↑ 68'
F
30
J. Gower
M
27
Kiko
🎯 73' ↑ 68'
D
99
Yan Maranhao
↑ 46'
F
71
L. Santos
↑ 76'
D
Estrela 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
40
R. Ribeiro
G
21
M. Scholze
🟨 31'
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
83
Otavio
🟨 90+4'
D
24
B. Langa
↓ 70'
D
19
P. Moreira
M
63
A. Sola
↓ 81'
M
99
A. Marcus
↓ 81'
M
11
Jovane
⚽ 13' ↓ 70'
M
10
I. Stoica
⚽ 36'
M
9
Rodrigo Pinho
↓ 64' 🟨 25'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Pinto
G
20
S. van Hooijdonk
↑ 64'
F
3
Ni
D
28
T. Moustier
↑ 81'
M
17
J. Encada
↑ 70' 🟨 77'
D
6
K. Jansson
↑ 70'
M
18
J. Meireles
↑ 81'
F
39
G. Doue
M
80
Alisson Souza
F
Last matches: Moreirense
16.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
11.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
1
4
L
20.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
10.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
Last matches: Estrela
16.05.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
4
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
19.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
0
5
L
06.01.26
Fri
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
3
3
D
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
20.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
0
0
D
H2H: Moreirense vs Estrela
02.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
20.12.25
H2H
Estrela
Moreirense
0
0
D
02.03.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
1
1
D
28.09.24
H2H
Estrela
Moreirense
2
1
L
07.04.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
Estrela
Moreirense
0
1
W
06.05.23
H2H
Estrela
Moreirense
2
4
W
31.12.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
27.11.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
4
2
W
Last matches: Moreirense
16.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
20.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
29.11.25
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
3
1
W
23.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
2
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
2
1
W
H2H at home: Moreirense
02.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
02.03.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
2
2
D
31.12.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
27.11.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
4
2
W
Last matches: Estrela
16.05.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
15.12.25
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
3
L
30.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
5
3
W
04.10.25
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
0
0
D
11.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
1
1
D
H2H away: Estrela
02.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
L
02.03.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
1
1
D
07.04.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
2
2
D
31.12.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
27.11.22
H2H
Moreirense
Estrela
4
2
L

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2