Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
84.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
40.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 11.5 Corners |
68.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Moreirense
Estrela
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Moreirense
31 matches
Estrela
31 matches
| Moreirense | Statistic | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 6 |
| 6 | Draws | 10 |
| 14 | Losses | 15 |
| 34 | Goals For | 34 |
| 45 | Goals Against | 51 |
| 1.1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.1 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 23 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 16 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 11 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 14 |
| 3.19 | Shots On Goal | 3.65 |
| 8.58 | Total Shots | 11.26 |
| 3.55 | Corners | 3.39 |
| 48.2% | Ball Possession | 48.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Estrela. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Estrela in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estrela having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Moreirense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 39 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 34:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Travassos (5 goals), Alanzinho (4 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 28 points from 31 games and a place of 15, Estrela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats with a 34:51 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jovane Cabral (6 goals), Kikas (6 goals), S. Lopes Cabral (6 goals), with creative support from S. Lopes Cabral (5 assists), A. Marcus (5 assists), Paulo Moreira (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 4 times, Estrela won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Moreirense's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Moreirense
5
3
4
4
5
3
Lineups
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Tondela
Moreirense
Benfica
Moreirense
Estoril
Moreirense
Famalicao
Moreirense
SC Braga
Moreirense
Arouca
Moreirense
FC Porto
Moreirense
Nacional
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Sporting CP
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Alverca
Moreirense
Tondela
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Estrela
Moreirense
Benfica
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
FC Porto
Estrela
Arouca
Estrela
Sporting CP
Estrela
Nacional
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estrela
Rio Ave
Estrela
GIL Vicente
Estrela
AVS
Estrela
Tondela
Estrela
Guimaraes
Estrela
Santa Clara
Estrela
Alverca
Estrela
Benfica
Estrela
Estoril
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
Moreirense
Moreirense
AVS
Moreirense
Estoril
Moreirense
SC Braga
Moreirense
Arouca
Moreirense
Nacional
Moreirense
Sporting CP
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Tondela
Moreirense
Benfica
Moreirense
Famalicao
Moreirense
FC Porto
Moreirense
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Alverca
Estrela
SC Braga
Estrela
Arouca
Estrela
Nacional
Estrela
Rio Ave
Estrela
AVS
Estrela
Guimaraes
Estrela
Alverca
Estrela
Benfica
Estrela
Famalicao
Estrela
FC Porto
Estrela
Sporting CP
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estrela
GIL Vicente
Estrela
Tondela
Estrela
Santa Clara
Estrela
Estoril
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 |
Moreirense
Home
|
34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
| 8 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 15 |
Estrela
Away
|
34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|