PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Referee: M. Torres
Moreirense
Match Timeline
Estoril
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Alanzinho · Assist: A. Assis
Moreirense
🔄
46'
Peixinho ↔ J. Carvalho
Estoril
🔄
53'
Jandro ↔ R. Guitane
Estoril
🔄
53'
Pizzi ↔ J. Holsgrove
Estoril
🔄
63'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
63'
A. Assis ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🟨
72'
Ferro
Estoril
🔄
73'
Xeka ↔ A. Marques
Estoril
🔄
79'
Landerson ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🔄
79'
P. Carvalho ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
🟨
90+3'
Antef Tsoungui
Estoril
🔄
90'
Alanzinho ↔ J. Gower
Moreirense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 2.1%
Draw 15.6%
Estoril Win 82.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.35
Estoril1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
32 GF / 41 GA
Estoril Estoril
WLDWL
51 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
14
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
20
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 29 matches
Estoril Estoril 29 matches
Moreirense Statistic Estoril
10 Wins 10
6 Draws 7
13 Losses 12
32 Goals For 51
41 Goals Against 50
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
14 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 20
5 Over 3.5 17
7 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.21
8.52 Total Shots 11.93
3.55 Corners 4.45
48.6% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Estoril's more proactive style and Moreirense's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Estoril in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estoril having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Estoril. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Moreirense Analysis

With 36 points from 29 games and a place of 9, Moreirense still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 32:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Travassos (4 goals), Alanzinho (3 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Estoril Analysis

Estoril sit 7 with 37 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 51:50, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (19 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 5 times, Estoril won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Moreirense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (97.9%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-3-3 / Estoril 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 5, draws 5, Estoril wins 5
Stats
Moreirense Moreirense
Estoril Estoril
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 1
14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 3
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 2
2 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 4
4 Shots outsidebox 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
395 Total passes 531
301 Passes accurate 427
0.86 expected_goals 0.35
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Moreirense
Formation
Estoril
A. Ferreira
A. Ferreira
Fabiano
Fabiano
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro
G. Batista
G. Batista
Travassos
Travassos
A. Assis
🎯
A. Assis
M. Stjepanovic
M. Stjepanovic
Landerson
Landerson
Rodri
Rodri
Kiko Bondoso
Kiko Bondoso
Alanzinho
Alanzinho
M. Turk
M. Turk
P. Carvalho
P. Carvalho
Ferro
Ferro
F. Bacher
F. Bacher
P. Amaral
P. Amaral
A. Tsoungui
A. Tsoungui
Peixinho
Peixinho
Xeka
Xeka
Jandro
Jandro
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
Pizzi
Pizzi
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
A. Ferreira
G
70
Fabiano
D
4
Kevyn Monteiro
D
66
G. Batista
D
2
Travassos
D
25
A. Assis
🎯 12' ↓ 63'
M
8
M. Stjepanovic
M
78
Landerson
↓ 79'
M
21
Rodri
M
10
Kiko Bondoso
↓ 63'
M
11
Alanzinho
⚽ 12' ↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
16
Mika
G
22
Caio
G
7
C. Teguia
↑ 63'
F
9
L. Semedo
F
30
J. Gower
↑ 90'
M
99
Yan Maranhao
↑ 63'
F
71
L. Santos
↑ 79'
D
Estoril 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
16
M. Turk
G
22
P. Carvalho
↓ 79'
D
4
Ferro
🟨 72'
D
25
F. Bacher
D
24
P. Amaral
D
5
A. Tsoungui
🟨 90+3'
M
70
Peixinho
↓ 46'
M
8
Xeka
↓ 73'
M
6
Jandro
↓ 53'
M
14
Y. Begraoui
M
21
Pizzi
↓ 53'
F
Substitutes
31
D. Dias
G
12
J. Carvalho
↑ 46'
M
99
R. Guitane
↑ 53'
M
20
G. Costa
↑ 79'
D
9
A. Marques
↑ 73'
F
7
N. Lominadze
M
10
J. Holsgrove
↑ 53'
M
97
L. Gomes
M
Last matches: Moreirense
16.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
11.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
1
4
L
10.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
Last matches: Estoril
16.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Estoril
FC Porto
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Estoril
Arouca
2
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Rio Ave
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Nacional
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Casa Pia
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Sporting CP
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Estoril
GIL Vicente
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Estoril
AVS
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Tondela
2
2
D
31.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Santa Clara
4
2
W
24.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Guimaraes
4
2
W
19.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Estrela
5
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
27.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
4
1
W
19.12.25
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
0
W
14.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Famalicao
0
4
L
H2H: Moreirense vs Estoril
20.04.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
07.12.25
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
3
3
D
11.05.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
2
D
28.12.24
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
2
2
D
18.05.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
1
W
13.01.24
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
1
3
W
07.05.22
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
1
0
L
28.12.21
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
12.02.18
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
2
L
10.09.17
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
0
2
W
18.02.17
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D
17.09.16
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
2
0
L
23.01.16
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
3
L
23.08.15
H2H
Estoril
Moreirense
2
0
L
17.05.15
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D
Last matches: Moreirense
16.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
29.11.25
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
3
1
W
23.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
2
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
2
1
W
H2H at home: Moreirense
20.04.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
11.05.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
2
D
18.05.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
1
W
28.12.21
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
12.02.18
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
2
L
18.02.17
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D
23.01.16
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
3
L
17.05.15
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D
Last matches: Estoril
10.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
1
D
06.04.26
Pri
Estoril
Arouca
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Nacional
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Sporting CP
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Estoril
AVS
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Santa Clara
4
2
W
19.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Estrela
5
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
14.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Famalicao
0
4
L
30.11.25
Pri
Estoril
FC Porto
0
1
L
01.11.25
Pri
Estoril
Rio Ave
4
0
W
03.10.25
Pri
Estoril
Casa Pia
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Estoril
GIL Vicente
0
2
L
31.08.25
Pri
Estoril
Tondela
2
2
D
16.08.25
Pri
Estoril
Guimaraes
2
3
L
H2H away: Estoril
20.04.26
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
L
11.05.25
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
2
D
18.05.24
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
2
1
L
28.12.21
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
L
12.02.18
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
2
W
18.02.17
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D
23.01.16
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
3
W
17.05.15
H2H
Moreirense
Estoril
1
1
D

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2