PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Referee: S. Guelho
Moreirense
Match Timeline
AVS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Rodrigo Alonso
Moreirense
🟨
35'
Mateus Pivô
AVS
🟨
39'
Roni
AVS
VAR
57'
Guilherme Neiva
AVS
🔄
61'
Fabiano ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🔄
62'
J. Gower ↔ Alanzinho
Moreirense
🔄
62'
Kiko ↔ A. Martinez
Moreirense
🟨
73'
Yan Maranhão
Moreirense
🔄
73'
D. Duarte ↔ Tomane
AVS
🔄
73'
A. Algobia ↔ T. Galletto
AVS
🔄
75'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
75'
Yan Maranhao ↔ L. Semedo
Moreirense
🔄
82'
Simao ↔ Trigueira
AVS
🔄
83'
G. Neiva ↔ A. Green
AVS
🟨
84'
Gustavo Mendonca
AVS
🔄
85'
Roni ↔ Kiki
AVS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 59.8%
Draw 15.5%
AVS Win 24.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.48
AVS1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
37 GF / 49 GA
AVS AVS
WLDWL
27 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
16
BTTS Yes
15
17
Over 2.5
20
3.21
Shots on Goal
3.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 33 matches
AVS AVS 33 matches
Moreirense Statistic AVS
12 Wins 3
6 Draws 11
15 Losses 19
37 Goals For 27
49 Goals Against 67
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
16 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 13
8 Clean Sheets 4
10 Failed To Score 17
3.21 Shots On Goal 3.12
8.79 Total Shots 11.12
3.61 Corners 3.7
49.1% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AVS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Moreirense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 42 points compared to AVS in 18 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AVS in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AVS having the stronger overall control.

Moreirense Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Moreirense have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, while the 37:49 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Alanzinho (5 goals), Travassos (5 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

AVS Analysis

With 20 points from 33 games and a place of 18, AVS still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 11 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 27:67 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Nene (4 goals), Pedro Lima (4 goals), Tomané (4 goals), with creative support from T. Akinsola (4 assists), Guilherme Neiva (3 assists), Pedro Lima (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 2 times, AVS won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:1 from Moreirense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-2-3-1 / AVS 4-3-3
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 2, draws 2, AVS wins 0
Stats
Moreirense Moreirense
AVS AVS
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 3
10 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 6
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 4
8 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
546 Total passes 306
484 Passes accurate 229
1.09 expected_goals 1.98
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Moreirense
Formation
AVS
Mika
Mika
Fabiano
Fabiano
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro
G. Batista
G. Batista
Kiko
Kiko
N. John
N. John
Rodri
Rodri
Travassos
Travassos
J. Gower
J. Gower
Kiko Bondoso
Kiko Bondoso
Yan Maranhao
Yan Maranhao
Simao
Simao
Mateus Pivo
Mateus Pivo
C. Devenish
C. Devenish
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
D. Rivas
D. Rivas
Roni
Roni
T. Akinsola
T. Akinsola
G. Mendonca
G. Mendonca
A. Algobia
A. Algobia
G. Neiva
G. Neiva
D. Duarte
D. Duarte
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
16
Mika
G
70
Fabiano
↓ 61'
D
4
Kevyn Monteiro
D
66
G. Batista
D
27
Kiko
↓ 62'
D
23
N. John
M
21
Rodri
🟨 5'
M
2
Travassos
M
30
J. Gower
↓ 62'
M
10
Kiko Bondoso
↓ 75'
M
99
Yan Maranhao
↓ 75' 🟨 73'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Ferreira
G
25
A. Assis
M
7
C. Teguia
↑ 75'
F
11
Alanzinho
↑ 62'
M
9
L. Semedo
↑ 75'
F
8
M. Stjepanovic
M
17
A. Martinez
↑ 62'
D
71
L. Santos
↑ 61'
D
78
Landerson
F
AVS 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
93
Simao
↓ 82'
G
97
Mateus Pivo
🟨 35'
D
42
C. Devenish
D
3
Paulo Vitor
D
12
D. Rivas
D
70
Roni
↓ 85' 🟨 39'
M
11
T. Akinsola
M
23
G. Mendonca
🟨 84'
M
27
A. Algobia
↓ 73'
M
21
G. Neiva
↓ 83'
M
20
D. Duarte
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
1
Adriel
G
88
Trigueira
↑ 82'
G
7
Tomane
↑ 73'
F
24
Kiki
↑ 85'
D
25
A. Green
↑ 83'
F
33
A. Santos
D
26
Ponck
D
19
T. Galletto
↑ 73'
M
14
O. Perea
F
Last matches: Moreirense
11.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
1
4
L
20.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
10.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
1
2
L
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
AVS
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
Last matches: AVS
10.05.26
Pri
AVS
FC Porto
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
AVS
Nacional
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
AVS
Sporting CP
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pri
AVS
Rio Ave
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
AVS
Guimaraes
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
AVS
GIL Vicente
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
AVS
Tondela
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
AVS
Santa Clara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
AVS
Alverca
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
AVS
Estrela
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
AVS
Benfica
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
AVS
Estoril
3
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
AVS
Famalicao
1
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
AVS
SC Braga
0
4
L
23.01.26
Pri
AVS
Casa Pia
3
3
D
17.01.26
Pri
AVS
Arouca
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pri
AVS
Moreirense
0
2
L
29.12.25
Pri
AVS
FC Porto
0
2
L
21.12.25
Pri
AVS
Nacional
2
2
D
13.12.25
Pri
AVS
Sporting CP
0
6
L
H2H: Moreirense vs AVS
16.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
03.01.26
H2H
AVS
Moreirense
0
2
W
17.05.25
H2H
AVS
Moreirense
0
3
W
04.01.25
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
1
1
D
Last matches: Moreirense
02.05.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estrela
3
2
W
20.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Moreirense
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Moreirense
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
24.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Santa Clara
1
0
W
11.01.26
Pri
Moreirense
Tondela
1
0
W
14.12.25
Pri
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
L
29.11.25
Pri
Moreirense
Famalicao
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Moreirense
FC Porto
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Casa Pia
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Moreirense
Rio Ave
3
1
W
23.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Guimaraes
2
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Moreirense
Alverca
2
1
W
H2H at home: Moreirense
16.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
04.01.25
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
1
1
D
Last matches: AVS
02.05.26
Pri
AVS
Nacional
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
AVS
Rio Ave
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
AVS
GIL Vicente
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
AVS
Tondela
0
0
D
07.03.26
Pri
AVS
Alverca
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
AVS
Benfica
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
AVS
Famalicao
1
3
L
23.01.26
Pri
AVS
Casa Pia
3
3
D
29.12.25
Pri
AVS
FC Porto
0
2
L
13.12.25
Pri
AVS
Sporting CP
0
6
L
28.11.25
Pri
AVS
Guimaraes
0
4
L
25.10.25
Pri
AVS
Santa Clara
0
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
AVS
Estrela
0
3
L
13.09.25
Pri
AVS
Estoril
1
3
L
24.08.25
Pri
AVS
SC Braga
2
2
D
09.08.25
Pri
AVS
Arouca
1
3
L
H2H away: AVS
16.05.26
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
0
0
D
04.01.25
H2H
Moreirense
AVS
1
1
D