PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
16.05.2026 14:30
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Referee: S. Guelho
Moreirense
Match Timeline
AVS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Rodrigo Alonso
Moreirense
🟨
35'
Mateus Pivô
AVS
🟨
39'
Roni
AVS
VAR
57'
Guilherme Neiva
AVS
🔄
61'
Fabiano ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🔄
62'
J. Gower ↔ Alanzinho
Moreirense
🔄
62'
Kiko ↔ A. Martinez
Moreirense
🟨
73'
Yan Maranhão
Moreirense
🔄
73'
D. Duarte ↔ Tomane
AVS
🔄
73'
A. Algobia ↔ T. Galletto
AVS
🔄
75'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
75'
Yan Maranhao ↔ L. Semedo
Moreirense
🔄
82'
Simao ↔ Trigueira
AVS
🔄
83'
G. Neiva ↔ A. Green
AVS
🟨
84'
Gustavo Mendonca
AVS
🔄
85'
Roni ↔ Kiki
AVS

Moreirense vs AVS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 59.8%
Draw 15.5%
AVS Win 24.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.48
AVS1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
37 GF / 49 GA
AVS AVS
WLDWL
27 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
16
BTTS Yes
15
17
Over 2.5
20
3.21
Shots on Goal
3.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 33 matches
AVS AVS 33 matches
Moreirense Statistic AVS
12 Wins 3
6 Draws 11
15 Losses 19
37 Goals For 27
49 Goals Against 67
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
16 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 13
8 Clean Sheets 4
10 Failed To Score 17
3.21 Shots On Goal 3.12
8.79 Total Shots 11.12
3.61 Corners 3.7
49.1% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AVS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Moreirense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 42 points compared to AVS in 18 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AVS in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AVS having the stronger overall control.

Moreirense Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Moreirense have collected 42 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, while the 37:49 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Alanzinho (5 goals), Travassos (5 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

AVS Analysis

With 20 points from 33 games and a place of 18, AVS still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 11 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 27:67 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Nene (4 goals), Pedro Lima (4 goals), Tomané (4 goals), with creative support from T. Akinsola (4 assists), Guilherme Neiva (3 assists), Pedro Lima (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 2 times, AVS won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:3 from Moreirense's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-2-3-1 / AVS 4-3-3
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 2, draws 3, AVS wins 0

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18
AVS Away
34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2