FRANCE LIGUE 2
11.09.2026 18:00
Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier vs PAU Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds 1.88
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.5%
1.88
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.07
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Montpellier Win 57.5%
Draw 14.9%
PAU Win 27.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Montpellier1.8
PAU1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Montpellier Montpellier
WWDLW
20 GF / 14 GA
PAU PAU
WLDWL
9 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
6
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
5
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Montpellier Montpellier 10 matches
PAU PAU 10 matches
Montpellier Statistic PAU
6 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 5
20 Goals For 9
14 Goals Against 15
2 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
6 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 4
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.2
12.8 Total Shots 14
5.6 Corners 4.8
53.4% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Montpellier won 0 times, PAU won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Montpellier's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Montpellier 4-2-3-1 / PAU 5-3-2
H2H summary: Montpellier wins 0, draws 1, PAU wins 2

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 16:4 12 15
W W W W W
2 5 3 1 1 7:5 2 10
W D L W W
3 5 2 3 0 12:7 5 9
D W W D D
4 5 2 3 0 8:4 4 9
W D D D W
5 5 2 2 1 4:4 0 8
L D W W D
6 5 2 2 1 5:6 -1 8
W L D D W
7 5 2 1 2 3:2 1 7
L W W L D
8 5 2 1 2 11:11 0 7
L D W L W
9 5 1 3 1 2:4 -2 6
D D W D L
10 5 1 2 2 8:9 -1 5
D L L D W
11 5 1 2 2 7:8 -1 5
D D L W L
12
PAU Away
5 1 2 2 4:5 -1 5
D D L W L
13 5 0 4 1 2:3 -1 4
D D D L D
14 5 0 4 1 3:5 -2 4
D D D L D
15 5 1 1 3 7:11 -4 4
W D L L L
16 5 1 1 3 6:10 -4 4
L W L D L
17 5 1 1 3 5:10 -5 4
L L D W L
18 5 0 3 2 5:7 -2 3
D L D L D
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3