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MEXICO › LIGA MX
25.10.2026 00:00
Estadio BBVA

Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Monterrey Win 41.9%
Draw 12.5%
Guadalajara Chivas Win 45.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monterrey1.41
Guadalajara Chivas1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monterrey Monterrey
WWDLW
37 GF / 25 GA
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
14
BTTS Yes
6
11
Over 2.5
4
5.8
Shots on Goal
5.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monterrey Monterrey 20 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 16 matches
Monterrey Statistic Guadalajara Chivas
10 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
5 Losses 2
37 Goals For 22
25 Goals Against 12
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
14 BTTS Yes 6
18 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 4
6 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 4
5.8 Shots On Goal 5.58
16.07 Total Shots 15.67
5.53 Corners 8
55.6% Ball Possession 59.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guadalajara Chivas. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monterrey expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Guadalajara Chivas in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Guadalajara Chivas having the stronger overall control.

Monterrey Analysis

Monterrey are currently 11 in the standings with 14 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 17:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (2 goals), H. Cuypers (2 goals), with creative support from Óliver Torres (2 assists), L. Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Placed 5 with 19 points from 11 outings, Guadalajara Chivas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), B. González (2 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), Á. Sepúlveda (2 assists), E. Álvarez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey won 5 times, Guadalajara Chivas won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:21 from Monterrey's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Monterrey 4-2-3-1 / Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Monterrey wins 5, draws 3, Guadalajara Chivas wins 7

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)