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10.10.2026 18:45
Stade Louis II
Referee: R. Buquet
Monaco
Match Timeline
Toulouse
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
29'
E. Diop · Assist: A. Golovin
Monaco
⚽
38'
M. Abline · Assist: E. Diop
Monaco
🔄
46'
J. Russell-Rowe ↔ S. Oppong
Toulouse
🟨
47'
Nazinho
Monaco
⚽
48'
C. Tengstedt
Toulouse
🔄
51'
D. Zakaria ↔ S. Benzahra
Monaco
🟨
54'
Aleksandr Golovin
Monaco
🔄
58'
E. Diop ↔ S. Idumbo
Monaco
🔄
58'
M. Detourbet ↔ F. Balogun
Monaco
⚽
59'
S. Oppong · Assist: C. Tengstedt
Toulouse
🟨
70'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Toulouse
🔄
71'
I. Azizi ↔ N. Sigur
Toulouse
🔄
75'
Vanderson ↔ J. Teze
Monaco
🔄
75'
M. Abline ↔ A. Fati
Monaco
🔄
77'
R. Messali ↔ I. Diallo
Toulouse
🔄
84'
A. Vossah ↔ A. Donnum
Toulouse
🔄
84'
C. Tengstedt ↔ S. Hidalgo
Toulouse
🟨
90+3'
Sion Oppong
Toulouse

Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Monaco Win 74.5%
Draw 3.7%
Toulouse Win 21.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monaco1.91
Toulouse1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monaco Monaco
W W D W W
9 GF / 3 GA
Toulouse Toulouse
L W D L D
9 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
8
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
6
5
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monaco Monaco 14 matches
Toulouse Toulouse 9 matches
Monaco Statistic Toulouse
10 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 4
28 Goals For 13
16 Goals Against 16
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
8 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 2
5 Shots On Goal 4.6
11.43 Total Shots 14.8
3.86 Corners 4.6
48.6% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Monaco's more proactive style and Toulouse's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Toulouse. Monaco come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Monaco arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 13 points compared to Toulouse in 13 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Monaco Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 13 points from 5 games, Monaco bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 8:3 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Paris Josua Brunner (4 goals), E. Dier (1 goals), Flávio Nazinho (1 goals), with creative support from A. Golovin (2 assists), E. Dier (1 assists), Flávio Nazinho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Toulouse Analysis

Toulouse sit 13 with 5 points after 5 league matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 7:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Tengstedt (3 goals), T. Jørgensen (2 goals), C. Tapé (1 goals), with creative support from C. Cásseres (4 assists), T. Jørgensen (1 assists), Yann Gboho (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Monaco won 8 times, Toulouse won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:17 from Monaco's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Monaco 4-2-3-1 / Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Monaco 1, Toulouse 1
H2H summary: Monaco wins 8, draws 4, Toulouse wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 16:9 7 17
W W W W W
2 8 5 1 2 18:14 4 16
W L W L W
3 8 4 3 1 11:6 5 15
D D W L W
4 8 4 3 1 11:7 4 15
D L D W D
5 8 4 2 2 13:7 6 14
L W L W D
6 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
L W L W D
7 8 4 1 3 16:12 4 13
W W W L D
8 8 4 0 4 18:13 5 12
W W W L L
9 8 3 3 2 7:6 1 12
D W W L D
10 8 3 2 3 8:10 -2 11
W L W W L
11 8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
D W D W D
12 8 3 1 4 12:18 -6 10
D W L W W
13 8 2 3 3 14:12 2 9
L D W L L
14 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
D L L W D
15 8 1 4 3 11:16 -5 7
D L L W D
16 8 2 1 5 12:18 -6 7
L L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 5:16 -11 5
D L L L L
18 8 0 2 6 8:15 -7 2
L L L L D
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Qualifying
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Relegation