FRANCE › LIGUE 1
10.05.2026 19:00
Stade Louis II
Referee: C. Turpin
Monaco
Match Timeline
Lille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
18'
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Lille
🟨
23'
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Lille
🔄
46'
A. Bouaddi ↔ N. Bentaleb
Lille
🟨
54'
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Lille
🔄
58'
S. Adingra ↔ W. Faes
Monaco
🔄
58'
A. Bamba ↔ M. Coulibaly
Monaco
🔄
59'
A. Golovin ↔ A. Fati
Monaco
🔄
62'
N. Mukau ↔ E. Mbappe
Lille
🔄
71'
F. Correia ↔ G. Perrin
Lille
⚽
72'
D. Zakaria
Lille
🟨
75'
Gaëtan Perrin
Lille
🟨
79'
Mamadou Coulibaly
Monaco
🔄
80'
J. Teze ↔ M. Biereth
Monaco
🔄
80'
T. Kehrer ↔ I. Toure
Monaco
🔄
89'
H. Haraldsson ↔ C. Verdonk
Lille
🔄
90'
R. Perraud ↔ Alexsandro
Lille

Monaco vs Lille Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Monaco Win 38.7%
Draw 12.1%
Lille Win 49.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monaco1.42
Lille1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monaco Monaco
WWDLW
74 GF / 72 GA
Lille Lille
WLDWL
67 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
30
BTTS Yes
17
30
Over 2.5
18
4.6
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monaco Monaco 45 matches
Lille Lille 46 matches
Monaco Statistic Lille
20 Wins 23
11 Draws 7
14 Losses 16
74 Goals For 67
72 Goals Against 50
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
30 BTTS Yes 17
33 Over 1.5 28
30 Over 2.5 18
25 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 14
4.6 Shots On Goal 4.67
12.69 Total Shots 13.5
4.84 Corners 5.93
50.7% Ball Possession 56.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lille. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Monaco expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lille in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lille having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Monaco Analysis

Monaco are currently 6 in the standings with 54 points from 32 matches. The record of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 56:48 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Balogun (13 goals), A. Fati (10 goals), M. Akliouche (6 goals), with creative support from M. Akliouche (6 assists), Aleksandr Golovin (5 assists), L. Camara (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 10 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Lille Analysis

Lille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 58 points after 32 matches. The return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 51:35, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Haraldsson (8 goals), M. Fernandez-Pardo (8 goals), O. Giroud (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 assists), F. Correia (5 assists), R. Perraud (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Monaco won 3 times, Lille won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from Monaco's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Monaco 3-4-2-1 / Lille 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Monaco 6, Lille 6
H2H summary: Monaco wins 3, draws 4, Lille wins 7

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3
Lille Away
34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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