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25.10.2026 18:15
Aker Stadion
Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen
Molde
Match Timeline
Fredrikstad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Caleb Sery
Molde
⚽
8'
Bryan Fiabema · Assist: Sondre Sørløkk
Fredrikstad
⚽
11'
Kristian Lonebu · Assist: Sander Hestetun Kilen
Molde
⚽
17'
Kristian Lonebu · Assist: Mathias Lovik
Molde
⚽
35'
Emil Breivik · Assist: Martin Linnes
Molde
🟨
53'
Samuel Holm
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
Samuel Holm ↔ Benjamin Thoresen Faraas
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
Bryan Fiabema ↔ Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Fredrikstad
⚽
60'
Kristian Lonebu · Assist: Sondre Granaas
Molde
⚽
63'
Kristian Lonebu · Assist: Emil Breivik
Molde
🔄
64'
Sander Hestetun Kilen ↔ Jalal Abdullai
Molde
🔄
64'
Kristian Lonebu ↔ Oskar Spiten Nysaeter
Molde
🔄
67'
Solomon Owusu ↔ Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen
Fredrikstad
🔄
67'
Gabriel Wesseh ↔ Leonard Owusu
Fredrikstad
🟨
70'
Martin Linnes
Molde
🔄
75'
Sondre Granaas ↔ Niklas Ödegard
Molde
🔄
75'
Daniel Daga ↔ Mats Møller Dæhli
Molde
🔄
78'
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl ↔ Birk Risa
Molde
🔄
82'
Liam West ↔ Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez
Fredrikstad

Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Molde Win 62.1%
Draw 4.4%
Fredrikstad Win 33.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Molde1.87
Fredrikstad1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Molde Molde
W D W L W
17 GF / 6 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
L D D D L
6 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2.15
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
24
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
17
6.22
Shots on Goal
3.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Molde Molde 33 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 33 matches
Molde Statistic Fredrikstad
16 Wins 13
7 Draws 9
10 Losses 11
71 Goals For 46
48 Goals Against 48
2.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
24 BTTS Yes 22
28 Over 1.5 27
23 Over 2.5 17
15 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
6.22 Shots On Goal 3.87
16.04 Total Shots 11.96
5.57 Corners 4.17
59% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Molde's more proactive style and Fredrikstad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fredrikstad. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Molde expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Molde Analysis

Molde come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 37 points after 22 matches. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 46:34, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Eirik Hestad (7 goals), E. Breivik (6 goals), F. Gulbrandsen (6 goals), with creative support from E. Breivik (8 assists), S. Granaas (4 assists), J. Abdulai (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Fredrikstad Analysis

Fredrikstad are currently 8 in the standings with 29 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, while the 28:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Holmé (3 goals), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (3 goals), B. Thoresen (3 goals), with creative support from S. Leach Holm (3 assists), D. Eid (2 assists), H. Skogvold (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Molde won 1 times, Fredrikstad won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Molde's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Molde 4-2-3-1 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
Missing players: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3
H2H summary: Molde wins 1, draws 2, Fredrikstad wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 19 2 4 64:26 38 59
L W W W W
2 25 19 2 4 61:23 38 59
W L W W L
3
Molde Home
25 13 4 8 59:39 20 43
L W W D L
4 25 13 4 8 49:31 18 43
W W W D W
5 25 13 3 9 36:33 3 42
W W W D L
6 25 11 7 7 43:38 5 40
L L D D W
7 25 10 2 13 45:42 3 32
W L L L W
8 25 9 5 11 43:46 -3 32
W W W L D
9 25 8 7 10 32:39 -7 31
L W L W L
10 25 8 7 10 32:41 -9 31
D D D W W
11 25 8 5 12 29:44 -15 29
L L L D D
12 25 7 6 12 26:34 -8 27
W L L D W
13 25 7 6 12 35:53 -18 27
D L L W L
14 25 5 9 11 43:57 -14 24
L L W L W
15 25 6 5 14 29:51 -22 23
W D L L L
16 25 5 4 16 26:55 -29 19
L W L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen