NORWAY ELITESERIEN
19.09.2026 16:00
Aker Stadion

Molde vs Aalesund Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Molde Win 59.4%
Draw 15.3%
Aalesund Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Molde2.05
Aalesund1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Molde Molde
WWDLW
59 GF / 43 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
48 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
2.03
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.07
21
BTTS Yes
21
19
Over 2.5
18
5.55
Shots on Goal
5.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Molde Molde 29 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 28 matches
Molde Statistic Aalesund
14 Wins 7
6 Draws 9
9 Losses 12
59 Goals For 48
43 Goals Against 58
2.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.07
21 BTTS Yes 21
24 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 18
13 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
5.55 Shots On Goal 5.05
15.05 Total Shots 15.75
5.35 Corners 5
58.9% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Molde's more proactive style and Aalesund's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aalesund. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Molde expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Aalesund in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aalesund having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Molde arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 33 points compared to Aalesund in 15 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Molde Analysis

Molde approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 33 points after 19 outings. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 38:29, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Eirik Hestad (7 goals), F. Gulbrandsen (6 goals), E. Breivik (5 goals), with creative support from E. Breivik (6 assists), Sondre Milian Granaas (3 assists), Eirik Hestad (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 18 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 30:43 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Christensen (7 goals), E. Osenbroch (5 goals), K. Lonebu (3 goals), with creative support from E. Osenbroch (4 assists), U. Charles (3 assists), M. Christensen (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Molde won 9 times, Aalesund won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:14 from Molde's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: Molde 4-2-3-1 / Aalesund 5-3-2
H2H summary: Molde wins 9, draws 1, Aalesund wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 2 2 49:15 34 47
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3
Molde Home
20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 19 5 5 9 16:24 -8 20
D D W L L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen