KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 89%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
89%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
66.6%
-
Probability Distribution
MOFA Win 89.6%
Draw 0%
Mwatate United Win 10.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
MOFA1.48
Mwatate United0.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
MOFA MOFA
WWDLW
40 GF / 19 GA
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WLDWL
24 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
0.83
0.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
12
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MOFA MOFA 29 matches
Mwatate United Mwatate United 29 matches
MOFA Statistic Mwatate United
14 Wins 6
11 Draws 6
4 Losses 17
40 Goals For 24
19 Goals Against 47
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
0.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
12 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 20
8 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by MOFA's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mwatate United having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mwatate United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. MOFA arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 53 points compared to Mwatate United in 18 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Mwatate United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

MOFA Analysis

MOFA come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 53 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 37:19 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mwatate United Analysis

With 24 points from 29 games and a place of 18, Mwatate United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 21:46 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, MOFA won 2 times, Mwatate United won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:2 from MOFA's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: MOFA wins 2, draws 0, Mwatate United wins 0
Last matches: MOFA
13.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Soy United
0
0
D
01.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
28.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
24.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Gucha Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Migori Youth
0
1
L
02.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Talanta
3
3
D
18.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Equity Bank
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MOFA
MCF
3
0
W
10.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Luanda Villa
1
1
D
04.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
21.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Vihiga United FC
3
2
W
15.03.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Naivas
1
0
W
27.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
15.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
1
0
W
25.01.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
1
1
D
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
H2H: MOFA vs Mwatate United
25.04.26
H2H
MOFA
Mwatate United
3
2
W
21.12.25
H2H
Mwatate United
MOFA
0
4
W
Last matches: MOFA
13.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
16.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Gucha Stars
2
1
W
02.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Talanta
3
3
D
14.04.26
Sup
MOFA
MCF
3
0
W
10.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Luanda Villa
1
1
D
21.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Vihiga United FC
3
2
W
07.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Naivas
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
1
0
W
25.01.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
MOFA
Equity Bank
1
1
D
17.12.25
Sup
MOFA
Kisumu All Stars
1
1
D
07.12.25
Sup
MOFA
Migori Youth
3
1
W
29.11.25
Sup
MOFA
Mombasa Elite
4
0
W
15.11.25
Sup
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
2
1
W
03.11.25
Sup
MOFA
Soy United
1
1
D
25.10.25
Sup
MOFA
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
MOFA
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
H2H at home: MOFA
25.04.26
H2H
MOFA
Mwatate United
3
2
W
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
3
L
07.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
30.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
16.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
3K
1
1
D
25.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
1
3
L
28.09.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
0
1
L
H2H away: Mwatate United
25.04.26
H2H
MOFA
Mwatate United
3
2
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5
MOFA Home
38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation