JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Best Denki Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 35.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 28%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
35.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
28%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mito Hollyhock Win 34.6%
Draw 35.2%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mito Hollyhock1.19
V-varen Nagasaki1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock
WWDLW
21 GF / 40 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
23 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.15
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
13
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
3.42
Shots on Goal
3.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 20 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 20 matches
Mito Hollyhock Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
2 Wins 8
8 Draws 2
10 Losses 10
21 Goals For 23
40 Goals Against 28
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
13 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 5
3.42 Shots On Goal 3.53
11.32 Total Shots 11.05
3.79 Corners 3.79
48.6% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring V-varen Nagasaki. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mito Hollyhock expected to line up in 4-4-2 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control.

Mito Hollyhock Analysis

Mito Hollyhock approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 18 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 12 defeats with a 23:39 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Watanabe (4 goals), C. Kato (3 goals), K. Ando (2 goals), with creative support from K. Tada (3 assists), T. Semba (2 assists), A. Watanabe (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 21 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 defeats with a 21:29 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Matheus Jesus (7 goals), Thiago (6 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (4 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mito Hollyhock won 5 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:26 from Mito Hollyhock's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (69.7%)
Predicted formations: Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Mito Hollyhock wins 5, draws 1, V-varen Nagasaki wins 9
Last matches: Mito Hollyhock
30.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
24.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
1
3
L
16.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
0
1
L
09.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
1
4
L
06.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
24.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
2
5
L
19.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
0
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
0
2
L
01.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
2
2
D
22.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
14.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
08.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Mito Hollyhock
Sagan Tosu
2
4
L
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
30.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
06.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Omiya Ardija
2
0
W
H2H: Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki
30.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
L
23.11.25
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
W
03.08.24
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
2
W
02.06.24
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
L
12.08.23
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
3
D
03.05.23
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
0
L
14.09.22
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
27.04.22
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
L
30.10.21
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
L
02.05.21
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
W
01.11.20
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
1
L
23.08.20
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
L
13.07.19
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
09.03.19
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
0
1
W
Last matches: Mito Hollyhock
24.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
1
3
L
16.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
0
1
L
09.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
1
4
L
29.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
19.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mito Hollyhock
31.05.25
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
W
02.06.24
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
L
12.08.23
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
3
D
14.09.22
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
02.05.21
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
W
23.08.20
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
L
13.07.19
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Omiya Ardija
2
0
W
H2H away: V-varen Nagasaki
31.05.25
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
L
02.06.24
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
W
12.08.23
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
3
D
14.09.22
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
W
02.05.21
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
L
23.08.20
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
W
13.07.19
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W