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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
17.10.2026 20:30
Allianz Field

Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 80.6%
Odds 2.66
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
80.6%
2.66 ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
1.47 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 15%
Draw 4.4%
St. Louis City Win 80.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.46
St. Louis City1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
48 GF / 55 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
58 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
22
BTTS Yes
22
21
Over 2.5
19
4.72
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 32 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 33 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic St. Louis City
8 Wins 15
11 Draws 10
13 Losses 8
48 Goals For 58
55 Goals Against 46
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
22 BTTS Yes 22
25 Over 1.5 28
21 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
4.72 Shots On Goal 4.93
13.45 Total Shots 13.48
5.28 Corners 5.41
46.1% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by St. Louis City's more proactive style and Minnesota United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and St. Louis City in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. St. Louis City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 47 points while Minnesota United FC sit 14 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

With 29 points from 27 games and a place of 14, Minnesota United FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats with a 40:49 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Yeboah (10 goals), A. Markanich (7 goals), Marcus Caldeira (4 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (7 assists), T. Chancalay (3 assists), K. Yeboah (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

St. Louis City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 47 points after 27 outings. The return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 48:36, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Becher (5 goals), T. Totland (3 goals), Marcel Hartel (3 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), T. Totland (3 assists), Marcel Hartel (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 6 times, St. Louis City won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:7 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2 / St. Louis City 3-1-4-2
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 3, St. Louis City 2
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 6, draws 0, St. Louis City wins 1

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 7 7 61:30 31 52
D D L D W
2 29 14 9 6 54:38 16 51
D W W W W
3 29 14 8 7 53:45 8 50
W L W D W
4 29 13 8 8 51:41 10 47
D D W D W
5 29 13 7 9 39:37 2 46
D D L D L
6 30 12 9 9 47:32 15 45
W D L D L
7 29 11 8 10 38:36 2 41
L W W W W
8 30 10 9 11 41:50 -9 39
W L W W D
9 29 11 5 13 41:41 0 38
D D L D W
10 29 9 6 14 51:56 -5 33
L D L L L
11 29 9 6 14 42:47 -5 33
D L W L L
12 29 8 9 12 51:54 -3 33
D L D D L
13 29 7 10 12 44:53 -9 31
D D L L L
14 29 7 10 12 37:54 -17 31
L L D D W
15 29 6 4 19 35:72 -37 22
L D L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)