🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Allianz Field
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Minnesota United FC
Match Timeline
Orlando City SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🟨
32'
A. Markanich
Minnesota United FC
🔄
46'
D. Callender ↔ A. Smir
Minnesota United FC
🟨
54'
A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🔄
59'
D. Dike ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC
🔄
59'
J. Gerbet ↔ Luis Otavio
Orlando City SC
64'
A. Griezmann · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
66'
M. Boxall
Minnesota United FC
71'
M. Caldeira · Assist: K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
72'
M. Caldeira ↔ N. Triantis
Minnesota United FC
🔄
72'
W. Trapp ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
🔄
73'
J. Ellis ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
74'
A. Markanich · Assist: J. Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
76'
K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
81'
Z. Taifi ↔ M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
🔄
81'
E. Atuesta ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
🔄
85'
K. Yeboah ↔ T. Chancalay
Minnesota United FC
🟨
90+2'
M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+2'
J. Pereyra ↔ C. Harvey
Minnesota United FC
90+3'
T. Spicer · Assist: A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds 4.04
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.9%
4.04
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.47
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 33.4%
Draw 7.7%
Orlando City SC Win 58.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.75
Orlando City SC1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
31 GF / 31 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
41 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
2.44
14
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
19
4.76
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 24 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 25 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic Orlando City SC
8 Wins 8
8 Draws 4
8 Losses 13
31 Goals For 41
31 Goals Against 61
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 2.44
14 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 5
4.76 Shots On Goal 4.55
13.24 Total Shots 11.4
5.57 Corners 3.55
46.2% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Orlando City SC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Orlando City SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Minnesota United FC have collected 25 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 22:28 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kelvin Yeboah (6 goals), Anthony Markanich (4 goals), Joaquín Pereyra (1 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (4 assists), Tomás Chancalay (3 assists), James Rodríguez (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orlando City SC Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Orlando City SC have collected 21 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, while the 32:50 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (2 goals), Griffin Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 3 times, Orlando City SC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:14 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-3 / Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 4, Orlando City SC 4
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 3, draws 1, Orlando City SC wins 4
Stats
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 0
13 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1
44% Ball Possession 56%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Goal 5
7 Shots off Goal 1
4 Blocked Shots 1
19 Shots insidebox 4
1 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
402 Total passes 544
345 Passes accurate 456
3.56 expected_goals 1.09
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Minnesota United FC
Formation
Orlando City SC
Drake Callender
Drake Callender
Jefferson Díaz
Jefferson Díaz
Michael Boxall
Michael Boxall
Morris Duggan
Morris Duggan
Kyle Duncan
Kyle Duncan
Owen Gene
Owen Gene
Wil Trapp
Wil Trapp
Anthony Markanich
Anthony Markanich
Joaquín Pereyra
🎯
Joaquín Pereyra
Marcus Caldeira
Marcus Caldeira
Kelvin Yeboah
🎯
Kelvin Yeboah
Maxime Crépeau
Maxime Crépeau
Griffin Dorsey
Griffin Dorsey
David Brekalo
David Brekalo
Robin Jansson
Robin Jansson
Zakaria Taifi
Zakaria Taifi
Justin Ellis
🎯
Justin Ellis
Eduard Atuesta
Eduard Atuesta
Joran Gerbet
Joran Gerbet
Iván Angulo
Iván Angulo
Daryl Dike
Daryl Dike
Antoine Griezmann
🎯
Antoine Griezmann
Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
12
Drake Callender
↓ 46'
G
28
Jefferson Díaz
D
15
Michael Boxall
🟨 66'
D
23
Morris Duggan
D
3
Kyle Duncan
M
30
Owen Gene
M
20
Wil Trapp
↓ 72'
M
13
Anthony Markanich
⚽ 74' 🟨 32'
M
26
Joaquín Pereyra
🎯 74' ↓ 90+2'
F
22
Marcus Caldeira
⚽ 71' ↓ 72'
F
9
Kelvin Yeboah
⚽ 76' 🎯 71' ↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
1
Alec Smir
↑ 46'
G
5
Nicolás Romero
D
2
Devin Padelford
D
67
Carlos Harvey
↑ 90+2'
M
16
Aziel Jackson
M
25
Nectarios Triantis
↑ 72'
D
18
Mauricio González
↑ 72'
F
8
Tomás Chancalay
↑ 85'
F
29
Mamadou Dieng
F
Orlando City SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
71
Maxime Crépeau
G
24
Griffin Dorsey
D
4
David Brekalo
D
6
Robin Jansson
D
19
Zakaria Taifi
↓ 81'
D
22
Justin Ellis
🎯 64' ↓ 73'
M
20
Eduard Atuesta
↓ 81'
M
35
Joran Gerbet
↓ 59'
M
77
Iván Angulo
M
9
Daryl Dike
⚽ 28' ↓ 59'
F
7
Antoine Griezmann
⚽ 64' 🎯 90+3' 🟨 54'
F
Substitutes
12
Javier Otero
G
57
Iago Silva
D
16
Wilder Cartagena
M
23
Harvey Sarajian
↑ 59'
F
87
Marco Pašalić
↑ 81' 🟨 90+2'
F
5
Luis Otávio
↑ 59'
M
10
Martín Ojeda
↑ 81'
M
14
Tyrese Spicer
⚽ 90+3' ↑ 73'
F
11
Tiago Souza
F
Last matches: Minnesota United FC
23.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
5
1
W
20.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
16.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
02.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
23.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
23.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
16.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
0
1
L
10.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Austin
2
2
D
02.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
0
1
L
23.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Dallas
1
0
W
19.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
12.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
2
1
W
05.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
2
1
W
22.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
0
0
D
15.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
6
L
08.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Nashville SC
1
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
Last matches: Orlando City SC
22.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
2
1
W
19.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
15.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
01.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
4
0
W
23.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
2
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
H2H: Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC
10.03.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
Minnesota United FC
2
3
W
16.04.23
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
2
L
01.02.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
Minnesota United FC
2
0
L
09.04.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
Minnesota United FC
3
2
L
07.08.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
L
18.08.19
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
11.03.18
H2H
Orlando City SC
Minnesota United FC
1
2
W
28.05.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
0
W
Last matches: Minnesota United FC
20.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
02.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
23.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
14.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
0
1
L
10.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Austin
2
2
D
25.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
H2H at home: Minnesota United FC
16.04.23
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
2
L
18.08.19
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
28.05.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
0
W
Last matches: Orlando City SC
01.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
2
3
L
23.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
4
0
W
23.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
2
6
L
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
H2H away: Orlando City SC
16.04.23
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
2
W
18.08.19
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
28.05.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Orlando City SC
1
0
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.04
Draw 4.17
Home 1.83
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.31
Draw 2.69
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.47
Over 2.75 1.57
Over 3.0 1.72
Over 3.25 1.95
Over 3.5 2.17
Over 3.75 2.48
Over 4.0 2.76
Over 4.5 3.63
Over 5.5 6.76
Under 1.5 6.05
Under 2.5 2.77
Under 2.75 2.50
Under 3.0 2.22
Under 3.25 1.93
Under 3.5 1.75
Under 3.75 1.58
Under 4.0 1.49
Under 4.5 1.31
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 3.90
Home 1.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.62
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.88
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.48
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.75
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.60
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.25
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 3.95
Home 1.81
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.48
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 3.00
Home 2.08
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 2.75 1.54
Over 3.0 1.68
Over 3.25 1.91
Over 3.5 2.15
Over 3.75 2.45
Over 4.0 2.95
Over 4.5 3.65
Over 5.5 6.75
Over 6.5 12.50
Under 1.5 5.75
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 2.75 2.40
Under 3.0 2.10
Under 3.25 1.84
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 3.75 1.52
Under 4.0 1.37
Under 4.5 1.26
Under 5.5 1.09
Under 6.5 1.01

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 4 4 45:18 27 40
W L W D D
2 21 12 2 7 30:26 4 38
L W W W W
3 23 10 6 7 36:22 14 36
D D L L D
4 21 10 3 8 39:33 6 33
L L L L D
5 21 9 6 6 38:34 4 33
L W W D L
6 21 9 6 6 30:27 3 33
W D W D W
7 21 9 1 11 30:28 2 28
L W W W L
8 20 8 4 8 34:32 2 28
L L D D L
9 21 8 4 9 38:37 1 28
D W L W W
10 21 7 7 7 27:29 -2 28
W L D D D
11 21 7 6 8 37:32 5 27
W L W D W
12 21 7 5 9 24:29 -5 26
D D L L L
13 22 6 8 8 27:32 -5 26
D W L D D
14 21 5 6 10 26:40 -14 21
D W L L L
15 21 4 3 14 20:51 -31 15
L D L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Minnesota United FC 4 missing
-
B. Hlongwane
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Chandler
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Romero
Questionable Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
P. Stroud
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Orlando City SC 4 missing
-
B. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
A. Gomez
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
M. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
B. Rhein
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT