🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
30.08.2026 00:30
Allianz Field
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Minnesota United FC
Match Timeline
Orlando City SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🟨
31'
Anthony Markanich
Minnesota United FC
🔄
46'
D. Callender ↔ A. Smir
Minnesota United FC
🟨
53'
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🔄
59'
J. Gerbet ↔ Luis Otavio
Orlando City SC
🔄
59'
D. Dike ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC
64'
A. Griezmann · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
66'
Michael Boxall
Minnesota United FC
71'
M. Caldeira · Assist: K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
72'
M. Caldeira ↔ N. Triantis
Minnesota United FC
🔄
72'
W. Trapp ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
🔄
73'
J. Ellis ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
74'
A. Markanich · Assist: J. Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
75'
K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
81'
Z. Taifi ↔ M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
🔄
81'
E. Atuesta ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
🔄
85'
K. Yeboah ↔ T. Chancalay
Minnesota United FC
🟨
90+2'
Marco Pašalić
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+2'
J. Pereyra ↔ C. Harvey
Minnesota United FC
90'
T. Spicer · Assist: A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds 4.04
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.9%
4.04
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.47
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 33.4%
Draw 7.7%
Orlando City SC Win 58.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.75
Orlando City SC1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
31 GF / 31 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
41 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
2.44
14
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
19
4.76
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 24 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 25 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic Orlando City SC
8 Wins 8
8 Draws 4
8 Losses 13
31 Goals For 41
31 Goals Against 61
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 2.44
14 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 5
4.76 Shots On Goal 4.71
13.24 Total Shots 12.19
5.57 Corners 4.1
46.3% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Orlando City SC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Orlando City SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Minnesota United FC have collected 25 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 22:28 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kelvin Yeboah (6 goals), Anthony Markanich (4 goals), Joaquín Pereyra (1 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (4 assists), Tomás Chancalay (3 assists), James Rodríguez (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orlando City SC Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Orlando City SC have collected 21 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, while the 32:50 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (2 goals), Griffin Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 3 times, Orlando City SC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.44 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-3 / Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 4, Orlando City SC 4
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 3, draws 2, Orlando City SC wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 26 8 7 11 44:44 0 31
D L L L W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)