ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
19.09.2026 11:30
The Den

Millwall vs West Ham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 40.2%
Draw 17%
West Ham Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.22
West Ham1.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
15 GF / 14 GA
West Ham West Ham
WLDWL
27 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
2.45
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1
4
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
7
4
Shots on Goal
5.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 11 matches
West Ham West Ham 11 matches
Millwall Statistic West Ham
5 Wins 5
1 Draws 5
5 Losses 1
15 Goals For 27
14 Goals Against 11
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 2.45
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1
4 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 1
4 Shots On Goal 5.86
14.8 Total Shots 15.86
5.8 Corners 6
48.6% Ball Possession 55.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring West Ham. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millwall expected to line up in 4-3-3 and West Ham in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward West Ham having the stronger overall control. West Ham look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Millwall Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Millwall have collected 9 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:8 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Arconte (2 goals), Josh Coburn (2 goals), L. Dykes (2 goals), with creative support from Jenson Metcalfe (2 assists), C. Neghli (1 assists), J. Cooper (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

West Ham Analysis

West Ham approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 14 points after 7 outings. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 20:9, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Bowen (3 goals), M. Solomon (2 goals), K. Mavropanos (2 goals), with creative support from J. Bowen (2 assists), V. Castellanos (2 assists), K. Walker-Peters (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 0 times, West Ham won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Millwall's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-3-3 / West Ham 4-4-2
H2H summary: Millwall wins 0, draws 1, West Ham wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 2 1 20:9 11 14
W W W W D
2 6 4 1 1 9:6 3 13
W W D L W
3 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L D W W D
4 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D L W W D
5 6 3 2 1 6:7 -1 11
D L D W W
6 5 3 1 1 8:5 3 10
W D W L W
7 5 3 1 1 9:7 2 10
W W W D L
8 5 3 0 2 10:8 2 9
W L L W W
9 6 3 0 3 10:9 1 9
W W L W L
10 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
W L W D D
11 5 2 2 1 13:10 3 8
D L W W D
12 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
W L L D D
13 6 3 2 1 14:7 7 7
W D D W W
14 6 1 4 1 8:8 0 7
L D D W D
15 6 2 1 3 9:10 -1 7
D W W L L
16 7 1 4 2 7:11 -4 7
L D D W L
17 5 2 0 3 7:8 -1 6
W L L W L
18 6 1 2 3 7:9 -2 5
L L D L W
19 5 1 2 2 4:6 -2 5
D D W L L
20 6 0 4 2 7:10 -3 4
D L L D D
21 6 1 1 4 6:12 -6 4
L L L L D
22 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L L W L D
23 6 0 3 3 7:13 -6 3
D L D L L
24 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One