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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
13.10.2026 18:45
The Den
Referee: Edward Duckworth
Millwall
Match Timeline
Swansea
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Jay Fulton
Swansea
🟨
23'
Derek Mazou Sacko
Millwall
🟨
23'
Vitor Matos
Swansea
🟨
44'
Lyndon Dykes
Millwall
🟨
51'
Zak Sturge
Millwall
🔄
64'
Jordi Osei-Tutu ↔ Tristan Crama
Millwall
🔄
64'
Jenson Metcalfe ↔ Luke Cundle
Millwall
🔄
65'
Kyrell Lisbie ↔ Yanis Ali Issoufou
Millwall
🔄
65'
Zan Vipotnik ↔ Ross Stewart
Swansea
🔄
65'
Elijah Just ↔ melker widell
Swansea
🔄
65'
Jay Fulton ↔ Goncalo Franco
Swansea
🔄
77'
Jenson Seelt ↔ Stephen Welsh
Swansea
🟨
83'
Filip Lissah
Swansea
🔄
84'
Mark Sykes ↔ Alfie Doughty
Millwall
🔄
84'
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo ↔ Ronald Pereira Martins
Swansea
⚽
90'
Ronald Pereira Martins · Assist: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
Swansea
🔄
90+2'
Camiel Neghli ↔ D. Kelly
Millwall

Millwall vs Swansea Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.8%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.8%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.14 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.4%
1.42 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 41%
Draw 12.2%
Swansea Win 46.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.24
Swansea1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
21 GF / 21 GA
Swansea Swansea
WLDWL
20 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
5.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 15 matches
Swansea Swansea 14 matches
Millwall Statistic Swansea
6 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
6 Losses 3
21 Goals For 20
21 Goals Against 14
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 5.22
14.56 Total Shots 12
4.33 Corners 4.11
45.1% Ball Possession 59.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Swansea's more proactive style and Millwall's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Swansea. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millwall expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Swansea in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Swansea having the stronger overall control. Swansea carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 17 points while Millwall sit 11 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall are currently 11 in the standings with 11 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Dykes (4 goals), T. Arconte (3 goals), C. Neghli (2 goals), with creative support from C. Neghli (2 assists), Jenson Metcalfe (2 assists), L. Dykes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Swansea Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 17 points from 8 games, Swansea bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:6, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Z. Vipotnik (2 goals), M. Yeo (2 goals), A. Idah (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Vipotnik (1 assists), S. Eustáquio (1 assists), Eom Ji-Sung (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 6 times, Swansea won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Millwall's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-2-3-1 / Swansea 4-3-3
Missing players: Millwall 7, Swansea 4
H2H summary: Millwall wins 6, draws 4, Swansea wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 15:7 8 20
W W W L D
2 9 5 3 1 17:12 5 18
W D D W W
3 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
4 9 5 1 3 15:13 2 16
W W W D W
5 8 4 2 2 15:11 4 14
L W W D L
6 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
7 9 3 5 1 13:11 2 14
W D W L D
8 9 4 2 3 16:15 1 14
W D D L W
9 9 4 2 3 10:9 1 14
L L D W W
10 9 4 2 3 12:13 -1 14
D W L L W
11 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
12 9 3 4 2 8:11 -3 13
D L D D L
13 9 3 3 3 14:13 1 12
W D W L L
14 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
15 9 2 5 2 10:13 -3 11
D W L D D
16 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
17 9 3 1 5 12:17 -5 10
L W W L L
18 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
19 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
20 9 2 2 5 7:14 -7 8
L L L W L
21 9 1 4 4 11:14 -3 7
L W L D L
22 9 1 4 4 13:17 -4 7
W D L D L
23 9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 9 1 1 7 8:16 -8 4
L D L L W
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One