ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
The Den
Referee: A. Backhouse
Millwall
Match Timeline
Oxford United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
Y. E. Konak ↔ C. Brannagan
Oxford United
34'
F. Azeez · Assist: M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🟨
39'
Thierno Ballo
Millwall
48'
F. Azeez
Millwall
🔄
59'
W. Lankshear ↔ M. Harris
Oxford United
🔄
59'
S. Mills ↔ Jeon Jin-Woo
Oxford United
🔄
59'
J. Donley ↔ J. McDonnell
Oxford United
🔄
61'
Z. Sturge ↔ A. Doughty
Millwall
🔄
61'
C. De Norre ↔ B. Mitchell
Millwall
🔄
62'
T. Ballo ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
73'
F. Azeez ↔ W. Smallbone
Millwall
🔄
81'
B. Bannan ↔ M. Langstaff
Millwall
🔄
88'
H. ter Avest ↔ S. Long
Oxford United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 80.6%
Draw 0%
Oxford United Win 19.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.33
Oxford United1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
63 GF / 54 GA
Oxford United Oxford United
WLDWL
46 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
0.98
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
24
BTTS Yes
25
23
Over 2.5
21
4.2
Shots on Goal
3.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 46 matches
Oxford United Oxford United 47 matches
Millwall Statistic Oxford United
23 Wins 11
11 Draws 15
12 Losses 21
63 Goals For 46
54 Goals Against 59
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 0.98
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
24 BTTS Yes 25
37 Over 1.5 31
23 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 9
17 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 19
4.2 Shots On Goal 3.51
12.76 Total Shots 12.19
5.48 Corners 4.11
46.2% Ball Possession 40.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Millwall's more proactive style and Oxford United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Millwall arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 80 points compared to Oxford United in 22 on 47, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oxford United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 80 points from 45 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 23 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses, while the 62:49 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Azeez (9 goals), Josh Coburn (9 goals), M. Ivanovic (9 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), T. Ballo (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Oxford United Analysis

Oxford United sit 22 with 47 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 20 defeats with a 45:57 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Lankshear (11 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), M. Peart-Harris (4 goals), with creative support from B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 3 times, Oxford United won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Millwall's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-2-3-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Millwall wins 3, draws 3, Oxford United wins 3
Stats
Millwall Millwall
Oxford United Oxford United
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
14 Corner Kicks 1
8 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 0
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 4
6 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
547 Total passes 290
469 Passes accurate 207
2.14 expected_goals 1.09
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Millwall
Formation
Oxford United
A. Patterson
A. Patterson
R. Leonard
R. Leonard
T. Crama
T. Crama
J. Cooper
J. Cooper
Z. Sturge
Z. Sturge
B. Bannan
B. Bannan
C. De Norre
C. De Norre
F. Azeez
⚽ 2
F. Azeez
C. Neghli
C. Neghli
T. Ballo
T. Ballo
M. Ivanovic
🎯
M. Ivanovic
J. Cumming
J. Cumming
H. ter Avest
H. ter Avest
M. Helik
M. Helik
C. Brown
C. Brown
B. Spencer
B. Spencer
W. Vaulks
W. Vaulks
Y. E. Konak
Y. E. Konak
S. Mills
S. Mills
J. Donley
J. Donley
A. Emakhu
A. Emakhu
W. Lankshear
W. Lankshear
Millwall 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
A. Patterson
G
18
R. Leonard
D
4
T. Crama
D
5
J. Cooper
D
3
Z. Sturge
↓ 61'
D
67
B. Bannan
↓ 81'
M
24
C. De Norre
↓ 61'
M
11
F. Azeez
⚽ 34' ⚽ 48' ↓ 73'
M
10
C. Neghli
M
7
T. Ballo
↓ 62' 🟨 39'
M
9
M. Ivanovic
🎯 34'
F
Substitutes
15
M. Crocombe
G
39
W. Smallbone
↑ 73'
M
2
D. McNamara
D
25
L. Cundle
↑ 62'
M
49
D. Mazou-Sacko
M
14
A. Doughty
↑ 61'
M
17
M. Langstaff
↑ 81'
F
8
B. Mitchell
↑ 61'
M
22
T. Watson
F
Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Cumming
G
24
H. ter Avest
↓ 88'
D
6
M. Helik
D
3
C. Brown
D
15
B. Spencer
D
4
W. Vaulks
M
5
Y. E. Konak
↓ 16'
M
17
S. Mills
↓ 59'
M
33
J. Donley
↓ 59'
M
10
A. Emakhu
M
27
W. Lankshear
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
21
M. Ingram
G
9
M. Harris
↑ 59'
F
8
C. Brannagan
↑ 16'
M
44
M. Peart-Harris
M
32
Jeon Jin-Woo
↑ 59'
M
2
S. Long
↑ 88'
D
38
J. McDonnell
↑ 59'
M
26
J. Currie
D
37
C. Makosso
D
Last matches: Millwall
11.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
2
L
08.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
0
D
24.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
1
D
21.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Stoke City
3
1
W
18.04.26
Cha
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
10.04.26
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Norwich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
1
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Preston
2
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Birmingham
3
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Portsmouth
1
3
L
14.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Wrexham
2
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Charlton
4
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Coventry
1
2
L
Last matches: Oxford United
25.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
4
1
W
21.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Wrexham
0
1
L
18.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Derby
0
1
L
11.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Watford
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Hull City
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Charlton
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Blackburn
1
0
W
06.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Preston
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
West Brom
2
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Stoke City
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
15.02.26
FA
Oxford United
Sunderland
0
1
L
10.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Norwich
0
3
L
07.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Coventry
0
0
D
03.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Birmingham
0
2
L
24.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Leicester
2
1
W
20.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
QPR
0
0
D
H2H: Millwall vs Oxford United
02.05.26
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
W
01.11.25
H2H
Oxford United
Millwall
2
2
D
01.01.25
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
1
L
30.11.24
H2H
Oxford United
Millwall
1
1
D
27.08.19
H2H
Oxford United
Millwall
2
2
D
22.04.17
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
3
L
29.10.16
H2H
Oxford United
Millwall
1
2
W
02.02.16
H2H
Oxford United
Millwall
0
1
W
14.01.16
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
2
L
Last matches: Millwall
11.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Norwich
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
1
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Birmingham
3
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Portsmouth
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Charlton
4
0
W
04.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Swansea
2
1
W
29.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Bristol City
2
1
W
26.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
1
3
L
29.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Southampton
3
2
W
26.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Millwall
Preston
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Stoke City
2
0
W
04.10.25
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
3
0
W
01.10.25
Cha
Millwall
Coventry
0
4
L
H2H at home: Millwall
02.05.26
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
W
01.01.25
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
1
L
22.04.17
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
3
L
14.01.16
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
2
L
Last matches: Oxford United
18.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Derby
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
06.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Preston
3
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Stoke City
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
07.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Coventry
0
0
D
03.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
24.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Leicester
2
1
W
09.01.26
FA
Oxford United
Milton Keynes Dons
1
1
D
01.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Ipswich
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Charlton
0
1
L
09.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Blackburn
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Swansea
0
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Oxford United
Norwich
1
1
D
08.11.25
Cha
Oxford United
West Brom
1
2
L
25.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
22.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Wrexham
0
1
L
04.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Watford
1
2
L
01.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
QPR
0
0
D
H2H away: Oxford United
02.05.26
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
L
01.01.25
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
1
W
22.04.17
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
3
W
14.01.16
H2H
Millwall
Oxford United
0
2
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation