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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
17.10.2026 11:30
The Den
Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo

Millwall vs Lincoln Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.3%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.3%
1.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.86 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.6%
1.51 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 46.9%
Draw 18.4%
Lincoln Win 34.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.51
Lincoln0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
21 GF / 22 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
11 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
0.69
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
7
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
2.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 16 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 16 matches
Millwall Statistic Lincoln
6 Wins 5
3 Draws 2
7 Losses 9
21 Goals For 11
22 Goals Against 29
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 0.69
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
7 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 2.7
13.9 Total Shots 11.8
5.2 Corners 3.8
45.6% Ball Possession 34.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lincoln. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millwall expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lincoln in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control.

Millwall Analysis

So far, Millwall have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 11 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Dykes (4 goals), T. Arconte (3 goals), C. Neghli (2 goals), with creative support from C. Neghli (2 assists), Jenson Metcalfe (2 assists), L. Dykes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lincoln Analysis

So far, Lincoln have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 11 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Hackett (2 goals), F. Draper (2 goals), B. House (1 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett (1 assists), B. House (1 assists), A. Coubiș (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-2-3-1 / Lincoln 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Millwall 7, Lincoln 6

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:7 9 23
W W W W L
2 10 6 3 1 20:14 6 21
W W D D W
3 10 5 4 1 29:12 17 19
W D D W W
4 10 4 5 1 17:11 6 17
W W D W L
5 10 4 5 1 15:9 6 17
W D D D D
6 10 5 2 3 12:10 2 17
W L L D W
7 10 6 2 2 21:10 11 16
W W L W W
8 10 5 1 4 17:16 1 16
L W W W D
9 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
W W D W L
10 9 4 2 3 16:14 2 14
L L W W D
11 10 4 2 4 16:16 0 14
L W D D L
12 10 4 2 4 12:14 -2 14
L D W L L
13 10 3 5 2 10:13 -3 14
D D L D D
14 10 4 1 5 15:18 -3 13
W L W W L
15 10 3 3 4 14:14 0 12
L W L L W
16 9 3 2 4 12:13 -1 11
W L D D W
17 10 2 5 3 11:15 -4 11
L D W L D
18 10 3 2 5 7:17 -10 11
L L L W W
19 10 2 4 4 16:15 1 10
W L W L D
20 10 3 0 7 17:20 -3 9
L L L L W
21 10 1 5 4 15:19 -4 8
D W D L D
22 10 2 2 6 8:19 -11 8
L L L L W
23 10 1 3 6 9:19 -10 6
L D D L L
24 10 1 1 8 8:20 -12 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One