Millwall vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.47
Derby1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall
WWDLW
15 GF / 14 GA
Derby
WLDWL
13 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
4
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
7
3.75
Shots on Goal
4
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Millwall
11 matches
Derby
11 matches
| Millwall | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 3 |
| 1 | Draws | 2 |
| 5 | Losses | 6 |
| 15 | Goals For | 13 |
| 14 | Goals Against | 18 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.64 |
| 4 | BTTS Yes | 6 |
| 8 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 3.75 | Shots On Goal | 4 |
| 15.5 | Total Shots | 11.5 |
| 6.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 51% | Ball Possession | 43% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 7 times, Derby won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Millwall's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-3-3 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Millwall wins 7, draws 5, Derby wins 3
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 | 10 |
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 10 |
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 10 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11:8 | 3 | 7 |
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 7 |
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 7 |
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 7 |
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:4 | 1 | 6 |
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:4 | 1 | 6 |
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 6 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Millwall
Home
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 6 |
L
L
W
W
|
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 5 |
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8:7 | 1 | 5 |
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 5 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 5 | 4 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 4 |
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 19 |
Derby
Away
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 4 |
W
L
D
L
|
| 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 |
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 3 |
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 3 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:10 | -5 | 2 |
D
L
L
D
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One