KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 93.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
93.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Migori Youth Win 93.5%
Draw 0%
MCF Win 6.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Migori Youth1.31
MCF0.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Migori Youth Migori Youth
WWDLW
51 GF / 26 GA
MCF MCF
WLDWL
19 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
0.58
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
13
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Migori Youth Migori Youth 34 matches
MCF MCF 33 matches
Migori Youth Statistic MCF
22 Wins 7
5 Draws 10
7 Losses 16
51 Goals For 19
26 Goals Against 34
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.58
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
13 BTTS Yes 9
19 Over 1.5 15
13 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 3
16 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Migori Youth's more proactive style and MCF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward MCF. Migori Youth arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 71 points compared to MCF in 18 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward MCF having the stronger overall control.

Migori Youth Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 71 points from 34 games, Migori Youth bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 22 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 51:26, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 14 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

MCF Analysis

With 28 points from 34 games and a place of 18, MCF still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 19:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Migori Youth won 5 times, MCF won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Migori Youth's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Migori Youth wins 5, draws 1, MCF wins 4
Last matches: Migori Youth
13.06.26
Sup
Migori Youth
3K
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Equity Bank
2
1
W
01.06.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
23.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
17.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
MOFA
1
0
W
03.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Mombasa Elite
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
W
18.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
12.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Naivas
1
0
W
05.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Mwatate United
0
1
L
23.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Talanta
3
1
W
15.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Soy United
3
2
W
08.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Soy United
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Luanda Villa
4
0
W
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
H2H: Migori Youth vs MCF
27.05.26
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
1
W
25.10.25
H2H
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
W
02.03.25
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
1
D
26.02.25
H2H
MCF
Migori Youth
2
0
L
18.02.24
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
0
W
05.11.23
H2H
MCF
Migori Youth
1
0
L
08.07.23
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
0
W
26.03.23
H2H
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
W
26.06.22
H2H
MCF
Migori Youth
1
0
L
09.02.22
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
3
L
Last matches: Migori Youth
07.06.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Equity Bank
2
1
W
23.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Migori Youth
MOFA
1
0
W
26.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Naivas
1
0
W
23.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Talanta
3
1
W
15.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Soy United
3
2
W
01.03.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
25.01.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Luanda Villa
4
0
W
11.01.26
Sup
Migori Youth
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
12.12.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Mombasa Elite
3
2
W
04.12.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
23.11.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Vihiga United FC
1
1
D
09.11.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
29.10.25
Sup
Migori Youth
3K
1
1
D
12.10.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Kisumu All Stars
2
1
W
28.09.25
Sup
Migori Youth
Mwatate United
1
0
W
H2H at home: Migori Youth
27.05.26
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
1
W
02.03.25
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
1
D
18.02.24
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
0
W
08.07.23
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
0
W
09.02.22
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
3
L
Last matches: MCF
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
14.12.25
Sup
MCF
Soy United
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
29.11.25
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
1
3
L
16.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
29.10.25
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
12.10.25
Sup
MCF
Mwatate United
3
0
W
04.10.25
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
H2H away: MCF
27.05.26
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
1
L
02.03.25
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
1
D
18.02.24
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
1
0
L
08.07.23
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
0
L
09.02.22
H2H
Migori Youth
MCF
2
3
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Away
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation