ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Riverside Stadium
Referee: A. Herczeg
Middlesbrough
Match Timeline
Watford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
M. Whittaker
Middlesbrough
45'
D. Strelec · Assist: M. Whittaker
Middlesbrough
🔄
46'
A. Bangura ↔ M. Targett
Middlesbrough
48'
J. Abankwah · Assist: K. Keben
Watford
58'
M. Whittaker
Middlesbrough
🔄
62'
E. Bove ↔ M. Doumbia
Watford
🔄
62'
J. Ngakia ↔ O. Maamma
Watford
🔄
63'
M. Whittaker ↔ T. Conway
Middlesbrough
🔄
63'
N. Mendy ↔ J. Grieves
Watford
🔄
63'
L. Kjerrumgaard ↔ N. Irankunda
Watford
🔄
64'
A. Malanda ↔ D. Fry
Middlesbrough
🔄
64'
S. Hansen ↔ L. Castledine
Middlesbrough
🟨
74'
James Abankwah
Watford
75'
T. Conway
Middlesbrough
🔄
82'
M. Bola ↔ T. Ince
Watford
🔄
83'
J. Sarmiento ↔ S. Silvera
Middlesbrough
🟨
85'
Aidan Morris
Middlesbrough
🟨
85'
Imrân Louza
Watford
90'
T. Conway · Assist: D. Strelec
Middlesbrough

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Middlesbrough Win 60.7%
Draw 5.6%
Watford Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough1.43
Watford1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WWDLW
66 GF / 47 GA
Watford Watford
WLDWL
53 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
25
BTTS Yes
27
24
Over 2.5
21
4.87
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 45 matches
Watford Watford 45 matches
Middlesbrough Statistic Watford
21 Wins 14
13 Draws 15
11 Losses 16
66 Goals For 53
47 Goals Against 61
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
25 BTTS Yes 27
31 Over 1.5 36
24 Over 2.5 21
13 Over 3.5 10
13 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 13
4.87 Shots On Goal 4.4
15.96 Total Shots 13.8
6.82 Corners 5.04
59.4% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Watford. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Middlesbrough expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and Watford in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Watford having the stronger overall control. Watford arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Middlesbrough arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 76 points compared to Watford in 15 on 57, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 76 points after 44 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 13 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 62:42 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Whittaker (12 goals), Tommy Conway (10 goals), D. Strelec (6 goals), with creative support from H. Hackney (7 assists), M. Whittaker (6 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Jones, D. Lenihan, H. Hackney, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Watford Analysis

Watford sit 15 with 57 points after 44 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 15 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 52:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Kjerrumgaard (9 goals), I. Louza (7 goals), Mamadou Doumbia (5 goals), with creative support from I. Louza (9 assists), N. Irankunda (4 assists), Jeremy Ngakia (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with H. Kyprianou, R. Vata, J. Grieves unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Middlesbrough won 4 times, Watford won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Middlesbrough's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2 / Watford 4-4-2
Missing players: Middlesbrough 4, Watford 3
H2H summary: Middlesbrough wins 4, draws 3, Watford wins 8
Stats
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Watford Watford
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 3
8 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 4
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 6
6 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 6
11 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
543 Total passes 437
482 Passes accurate 370
2.30 expected_goals 0.85
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Middlesbrough
Formation
Watford
S. Brynn
S. Brynn
C. Brittain
C. Brittain
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
A. Malanda
A. Malanda
A. Bangura
A. Bangura
A. Gilbert
A. Gilbert
A. Morris
A. Morris
M. Whittaker
⚽ 2 🎯
M. Whittaker
J. Sarmiento
J. Sarmiento
S. Hansen
S. Hansen
D. Strelec
🎯
D. Strelec
E. Selvik
E. Selvik
J. Abankwah
J. Abankwah
M. Pollock
M. Pollock
K. Keben
🎯
K. Keben
J. Ngakia
J. Ngakia
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
I. Louza
I. Louza
E. Kayembe
E. Kayembe
M. Bola
M. Bola
L. Kjerrumgaard
L. Kjerrumgaard
E. Bove
E. Bove
Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
S. Brynn
G
2
C. Brittain
D
12
L. Ayling
D
29
A. Malanda
↓ 64'
D
24
A. Bangura
↓ 46'
D
14
A. Gilbert
M
18
A. Morris
🟨 85'
M
11
M. Whittaker
⚽ 6' ⚽ 58' 🎯 45' ↓ 63'
M
45
J. Sarmiento
↓ 83'
M
27
S. Hansen
↓ 64'
M
13
D. Strelec
⚽ 45' 🎯 90'
F
Substitutes
32
J. Wildsmith
G
16
A. Browne
M
25
G. Edmundson
D
9
T. Conway
⚽ 75' ⚽ 90' ↑ 63'
F
6
D. Fry
↑ 64'
D
3
M. Targett
↑ 46'
D
20
M. K. Sene
F
22
S. Silvera
↑ 83'
F
23
L. Castledine
↑ 64'
M
Watford 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
E. Selvik
G
25
J. Abankwah
⚽ 48' 🟨 74'
D
6
M. Pollock
D
4
K. Keben
🎯 48'
D
2
J. Ngakia
↓ 62'
M
23
N. Mendy
↓ 63'
M
10
I. Louza
🟨 85'
M
39
E. Kayembe
M
16
M. Bola
↓ 82'
M
9
L. Kjerrumgaard
↓ 63'
F
15
E. Bove
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
12
N. Baxter
G
7
T. Ince
↑ 82'
M
8
G. Chakvetadze
M
43
J. Grieves
↑ 63'
F
20
M. Doumbia
↑ 62'
F
34
K. Baah
F
66
N. Irankunda
↑ 63'
F
3
S. Goglichidze
D
42
O. Maamma
↑ 62'
F
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
Last matches: Watford
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
07.02.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
0
1
L
03.02.26
Cha
Watford
Hull City
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
Watford
Swansea
0
2
L
24.01.26
Cha
Watford
Blackburn
1
1
D
H2H: Middlesbrough vs Watford
25.04.26
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
01.11.25
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
3
0
L
15.02.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
L
05.10.24
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
2
1
L
04.05.24
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
3
1
W
30.09.23
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
2
3
W
28.01.23
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
2
0
W
30.08.22
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
2
1
L
05.04.21
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D
11.09.20
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
0
L
14.01.17
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
16.10.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
L
06.04.15
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
2
0
L
25.10.14
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D
15.02.14
H2H
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
0
L
Last matches: Middlesbrough
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
24.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Preston
4
0
W
04.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
4
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
26.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
3
1
W
29.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
2
4
L
08.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
2
1
W
25.10.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
1
1
D
17.10.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
1
W
30.09.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Stoke City
0
0
D
H2H at home: Middlesbrough
25.04.26
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
15.02.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
L
04.05.24
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
3
1
W
28.01.23
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
2
0
W
05.04.21
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D
16.10.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
L
25.10.14
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D
Last matches: Watford
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
07.02.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
0
1
L
03.02.26
Cha
Watford
Hull City
0
0
D
24.01.26
Cha
Watford
Blackburn
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Watford
Bristol City
1
5
L
29.12.25
Cha
Watford
Norwich
1
0
W
26.12.25
Cha
Watford
Leicester
2
1
W
13.12.25
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
2
2
D
01.12.25
Cha
Watford
Birmingham
1
2
L
22.11.25
Cha
Watford
Derby
3
2
W
04.11.25
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Watford
Coventry
1
3
L
H2H away: Watford
25.04.26
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
L
15.02.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
W
04.05.24
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
3
1
L
28.01.23
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
2
0
L
05.04.21
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D
16.10.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
1
W
25.10.14
H2H
Middlesbrough
Watford
1
1
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Middlesbrough 4 missing
-
A. Jones
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
D. Lenihan
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
H. Hackney
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
R. McGree
Questionable Injury
OUT
Watford 3 missing
-
H. Kyprianou
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Vata
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Grieves
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT