ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
15.09.2026 18:45
Riverside Stadium
Referee: Robert Madley, England
Middlesbrough
Match Timeline
Millwall
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
T. Arconte · Assist: C. Neghli
Millwall
36'
L. Dykes · Assist: C. Taylor
Millwall
🔄
46'
Neto Borges ↔ M. Arfsten
Middlesbrough
🔄
46'
S. Berhalter ↔ K. Joseph
Middlesbrough
🔄
46'
T. Conway ↔ J. Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
50'
A. Cozier-Duberry
Middlesbrough
🔄
56'
L. Dykes ↔ E. Baggott
Millwall
🟨
59'
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Millwall
61'
W. Lankshear · Assist: L. Ayling
Middlesbrough
🟨
66'
Riley McGree
Middlesbrough
🔄
75'
J. Metcalfe ↔ D. Kelly
Millwall
🔄
75'
T. Arconte ↔ Z. Lovelace
Millwall
🔄
78'
R. McGree ↔ M. Peart-Harris
Middlesbrough
🔄
84'
M. Sykes ↔ Y. Issoufou
Millwall
🔄
84'
Z. Sturge ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
85'
A. Cozier-Duberry ↔ D. Strelec
Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough vs Millwall Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
1.55
BTTS Yes
75%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.63
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Middlesbrough Win 66.9%
Draw 6.4%
Millwall Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough1.7
Millwall1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WWDLW
17 GF / 15 GA
Millwall Millwall
WLDWL
16 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
8
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
7
5
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 9 matches
Millwall Millwall 12 matches
Middlesbrough Statistic Millwall
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 1
2 Losses 6
17 Goals For 16
15 Goals Against 17
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
8 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 4
0 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 3.67
17.17 Total Shots 15
4.83 Corners 5.17
58.2% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Millwall. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Middlesbrough expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Millwall in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Millwall having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 10 points after 5 outings. The return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 8:5, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through W. Lankshear (5 goals), J. Sarmiento (1 goals), A. Jones (1 goals), with creative support from C. Brittain (1 assists), L. Ayling (1 assists), M. Whittaker (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall sit 7 with 9 points after 5 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:8 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Arconte (2 goals), Josh Coburn (2 goals), L. Dykes (2 goals), with creative support from Jenson Metcalfe (2 assists), C. Neghli (1 assists), J. Cooper (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Middlesbrough won 6 times, Millwall won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:11 from Middlesbrough's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1 / Millwall 4-3-3
Missing players: Middlesbrough 1, Millwall 11
H2H summary: Middlesbrough wins 6, draws 4, Millwall wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One