Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
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| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Middlesbrough Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough0.6
Derby1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Middlesbrough
WWDLW
1 GF / 1 GA
Derby
WLDWL
2 GF / 0 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
0
1
BTTS Yes
0
0
Over 2.5
0
0
Shots on Goal
0
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Middlesbrough
1 matches
Derby
1 matches
| Middlesbrough | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wins | 1 |
| 1 | Draws | 0 |
| 0 | Losses | 0 |
| 1 | Goals For | 2 |
| 1 | Goals Against | 0 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0 |
| 1 | BTTS Yes | 0 |
| 1 | Over 1.5 | 1 |
| 0 | Over 2.5 | 0 |
| 0 | Over 3.5 | 0 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 1 |
| 0 | Failed To Score | 0 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Middlesbrough won 6 times, Derby won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Middlesbrough's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Middlesbrough wins 6, draws 4, Derby wins 5
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
25.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
Last matches: Derby
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
H2H: Middlesbrough vs Derby
01.01.26
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
0
L
29.11.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
1
W
01.03.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
0
W
17.08.24
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
0
L
12.02.22
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
4
1
W
21.08.21
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
13.02.21
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
2
1
L
25.11.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
3
0
W
11.01.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
2
D
02.11.19
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
2
0
L
01.01.19
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
27.10.18
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
1
D
21.04.18
H2H
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
W
25.11.17
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
3
L
02.01.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
0
W
Last matches: Middlesbrough
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
25.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
24.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Preston
4
0
W
04.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
4
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
26.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
3
1
W
29.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
2
4
L
08.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
2
1
W
25.10.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
1
1
D
17.10.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
1
W
H2H at home: Middlesbrough
29.11.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
1
W
01.03.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
0
W
12.02.22
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
4
1
W
25.11.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
3
0
W
11.01.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
2
D
27.10.18
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
1
D
25.11.17
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
3
L
02.01.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
0
W
Last matches: Derby
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
15.12.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
29.11.25
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
1
W
08.11.25
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
2
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
3
1
W
18.10.25
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
0
1
L
H2H away: Derby
29.11.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
1
L
01.03.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
0
L
12.02.22
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
4
1
L
25.11.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
3
0
L
11.01.20
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
2
D
27.10.18
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
1
1
D
25.11.17
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
3
W
02.01.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Derby
2
0
L
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 4 |
Derby
Away
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
| 5 |
Middlesbrough
Home
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
?
|
|
| 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
?
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One