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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
17.10.2026 11:30
Riverside Stadium

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Middlesbrough Win 72.1%
Draw 4.3%
Cardiff Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough1.81
Cardiff1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WWDLW
22 GF / 19 GA
Cardiff Cardiff
WLDWL
26 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
2
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
10
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
9
5.22
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 matches
Cardiff Cardiff 13 matches
Middlesbrough Statistic Cardiff
5 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
2 Losses 5
22 Goals For 26
19 Goals Against 23
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
10 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 3
5.22 Shots On Goal 6
17.11 Total Shots 17.89
5.56 Corners 7.67
59.2% Ball Possession 63.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Middlesbrough's more proactive style and Cardiff's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cardiff. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Middlesbrough expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Cardiff in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cardiff having the stronger overall control. Cardiff arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Middlesbrough arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 15 points compared to Cardiff in 21 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 15 points after 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 16:12 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by W. Lankshear (6 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (2 goals), S. Berhalter (2 goals), with creative support from L. Ayling (2 assists), T. Conway (2 assists), A. Cozier-Duberry (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cardiff Analysis

With 7 points from 8 games and a place of 21, Cardiff still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 10:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Moylan (3 goals), Y. Salech (2 goals), Cian Ashford (2 goals), with creative support from J. Moylan (1 assists), Y. Salech (1 assists), Cian Ashford (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Middlesbrough won 7 times, Cardiff won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:15 from Middlesbrough's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1 / Cardiff 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Middlesbrough wins 7, draws 3, Cardiff wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 15:7 8 20
W W W L D
2 9 5 3 1 17:12 5 18
W D D W W
3 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
4 9 5 1 3 15:13 2 16
W W W D W
5 8 4 2 2 15:11 4 14
L W W D L
6 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
7 9 3 5 1 13:11 2 14
W D W L D
8 9 4 2 3 16:15 1 14
W D D L W
9 9 4 2 3 10:9 1 14
L L D W W
10 9 4 2 3 12:13 -1 14
D W L L W
11 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
12 9 3 4 2 8:11 -3 13
D L D D L
13 9 3 3 3 14:13 1 12
W D W L L
14 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
15 9 2 5 2 10:13 -3 11
D W L D D
16 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
17 9 3 1 5 12:17 -5 10
L W W L L
18 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
19 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
20 9 2 2 5 7:14 -7 8
L L L W L
21 9 1 4 4 11:14 -3 7
L W L D L
22 9 1 4 4 13:17 -4 7
W D L D L
23 9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 9 1 1 7 8:16 -8 4
L D L L W
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One