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WORLD › WORLD CUP
--.--.---- --:--
Mexico
FT
2 - 0
Ecuador
Estadio Banorte
Referee: S. Vincic
Mexico
Match Timeline
Ecuador
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
J. Quinones · Assist: R. Alvarado
Mexico
⚽
31'
R. Jimenez · Assist: J. Quinones
Mexico
🟨
45+1'
A. Franco
Ecuador
🔄
46'
J. Ordonez ↔ A. Preciado
Ecuador
🔄
46'
A. Franco ↔ Y. Medina
Ecuador
🔄
58'
G. Mora ↔ B. Gutierrez
Mexico
🔄
59'
E. Valencia ↔ K. Rodriguez
Ecuador
🔄
73'
L. Romo ↔ O. Vargas
Mexico
🔄
74'
R. Jimenez ↔ S. Gimenez
Mexico
🔄
79'
J. Yeboah ↔ J. Caicedo
Ecuador
🔄
79'
N. Angulo ↔ K. Paez
Ecuador
🔄
80'
R. Alvarado ↔ I. Reyes
Mexico
🔄
80'
J. Quinones ↔ O. Pineda
Mexico
🟨
90+3'
K. Paez
Ecuador
🟥
90+5'
P. Hincapie
Ecuador
🟨
90+9'
M. Caicedo
Ecuador

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mexico Win 81.9%
Draw 4.7%
Ecuador Win 13.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.43
Ecuador0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mexico Mexico
WWDLW
21 GF / 2 GA
Ecuador Ecuador
WLDWL
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
2
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
3
4.64
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mexico Mexico 11 matches
Ecuador Ecuador 7 matches
Mexico Statistic Ecuador
9 Wins 3
2 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
21 Goals For 9
2 Goals Against 5
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
2 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 0
9 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
4.64 Shots On Goal 5.14
12.18 Total Shots 14.29
4.36 Corners 5.14
54.6% Ball Possession 56%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Mexico won 2 times, Ecuador won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Mexico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Mexico 4-1-2-3 / Ecuador 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Mexico wins 2, draws 3, Ecuador wins 2
Stats
Mexico Mexico
Ecuador Ecuador
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 8
10 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Goal 1
9 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
319 Total passes 407
249 Passes accurate 340
1.02 expected_goals 0.73
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Mexico
Formation
Ecuador
R. Rangel
R. Rangel
J. Sanchez
J. Sanchez
C. Montes
C. Montes
J. Vasquez
J. Vasquez
J. Gallardo
J. Gallardo
E. Lira
E. Lira
G. Mora
↓
G. Mora
L. Romo
↓
L. Romo
R. Alvarado
🎯 ↓
R. Alvarado
R. Jimenez
⚽ ↓
R. Jimenez
J. Quinones
⚽ 🎯 ↓
J. Quinones
H. Galindez
H. Galindez
A. Franco
↓
A. Franco
J. Ordonez
↓
J. Ordonez
W. Pacho
W. Pacho
P. Hincapie
P. Hincapie
J. Yeboah
↓
J. Yeboah
P. Vite
P. Vite
M. Caicedo
M. Caicedo
N. Angulo
↓
N. Angulo
G. Plata
G. Plata
E. Valencia
↓
E. Valencia
Mexico 4-1-2-3
Starting XI
1
R. Rangel
G
2
J. Sanchez
D
3
C. Montes
D
5
J. Vasquez
D
23
J. Gallardo
D
6
E. Lira
M
19
G. Mora
↓ 58'
M
7
L. Romo
↓ 73'
D
25
R. Alvarado
🎯 22' ↓ 80'
F
9
R. Jimenez
⚽ 31' ↓ 74'
F
16
J. Quinones
⚽ 22' 🎯 31' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Ochoa
G
12
C. Acevedo
G
22
G. Martinez
F
24
L. Chavez
M
15
I. Reyes
↑ 80'
D
18
O. Vargas
↑ 73'
M
20
M. Chavez Garcia
D
17
O. Pineda
↑ 80'
M
8
A. Fidalgo
M
10
A. Vega
F
4
E. Alvarez
M
11
S. Gimenez
↑ 74'
F
21
C. S. Huerta Valera
F
26
B. Gutierrez
↑ 58'
M
14
A. Gonzalez
F
Ecuador 3-4-3 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Galindez
G
21
A. Franco
↓ 46' 🟨 45+1'
M
4
J. Ordonez
↓ 46'
D
6
W. Pacho
D
3
P. Hincapie
🟥 90+5'
D
9
J. Yeboah
↓ 79'
M
15
P. Vite
M
23
M. Caicedo
🟨 90+9'
M
20
N. Angulo
↓ 79'
F
19
G. Plata
F
13
E. Valencia
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
22
G. Valle
G
12
M. Ramirez
G
7
P. Estupinan
D
16
J. Caicedo
↑ 79'
F
17
A. Preciado
↑ 46'
D
8
A. Valencia
F
11
K. Rodriguez
↑ 59'
F
2
F. Torres
D
25
J. Porozo
D
5
J. Alcivar
M
14
A. Minda
F
18
D. Castillo
M
26
Y. Medina
↑ 46'
D
24
J. Arevalo
F
10
K. Paez
↑ 79' 🟨 90+3'
M
Last matches: Mexico
06.07.26
Wor
Mexico
England
2
3
L
25.06.26
Wor
Mexico
Czechia
3
0
W
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
11.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Bolivia
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Panama
1
0
W
Last matches: Ecuador
25.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Germany
2
1
W
21.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Curaçao
0
0
D
14.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
0
1
L
07.06.26
Fri
Ecuador
Guatemala
3
0
W
31.05.26
Fri
Ecuador
Saudi Arabia
2
1
W
31.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Netherlands
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Morocco
1
1
D
H2H: Mexico vs Ecuador
01.07.26
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
0
W
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
L
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
W
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
L
Last matches: Mexico
06.07.26
Wor
Mexico
England
2
3
L
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
11.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
H2H at home: Mexico
01.07.26
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
0
W
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
L
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
W
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
L
Last matches: Ecuador
14.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
0
1
L
31.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Netherlands
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Morocco
1
1
D
H2H away: Ecuador
01.07.26
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
0
L
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
W
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
L
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
W

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Mexico Home
3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
L W W W W
2
South Africa
3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
L W D L
3
South Korea
3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
L L W
4
Czechia
3 0 1 2 2:6 -4 1
L D L
Round of 32