WORLD WORLD CUP
01.07.2026 01:00
Estadio Banorte
Referee: S. Vincic
Mexico
Match Timeline
Ecuador
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
J. Quinones · Assist: R. Alvarado
Mexico
31'
R. Jimenez · Assist: J. Quinones
Mexico
🟨
45+1'
A. Franco
Ecuador
🔄
46'
J. Ordonez ↔ A. Preciado
Ecuador
🔄
46'
A. Franco ↔ Y. Medina
Ecuador
🔄
58'
G. Mora ↔ B. Gutierrez
Mexico
🔄
59'
E. Valencia ↔ K. Rodriguez
Ecuador
🔄
73'
L. Romo ↔ O. Vargas
Mexico
🔄
74'
R. Jimenez ↔ S. Gimenez
Mexico
🔄
79'
J. Yeboah ↔ J. Caicedo
Ecuador
🔄
79'
N. Angulo ↔ K. Paez
Ecuador
🔄
80'
R. Alvarado ↔ I. Reyes
Mexico
🔄
80'
J. Quinones ↔ O. Pineda
Mexico
🟨
90+3'
K. Paez
Ecuador
🟥
90+5'
P. Hincapie
Ecuador
🟨
90+9'
M. Caicedo
Ecuador

Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mexico Win 81.9%
Draw 4.7%
Ecuador Win 13.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.43
Ecuador0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mexico Mexico
WWDLW
21 GF / 2 GA
Ecuador Ecuador
WLDWL
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
2
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
3
4.64
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mexico Mexico 11 matches
Ecuador Ecuador 7 matches
Mexico Statistic Ecuador
9 Wins 3
2 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
21 Goals For 9
2 Goals Against 5
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
2 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 0
9 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
4.64 Shots On Goal 5.14
12.18 Total Shots 14.29
4.36 Corners 5.14
54.6% Ball Possession 56%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Mexico won 2 times, Ecuador won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Mexico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Mexico 4-1-2-3 / Ecuador 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Mexico wins 2, draws 3, Ecuador wins 2

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
L W W W W
2 3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
L W D L
3 3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
L L W
4 3 0 1 2 2:6 -4 1
L D L
Round of 32