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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
17.10.2026 12:00
Stade Saint-Symphorien

Metz vs Sochaux Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Metz Win 58.4%
Draw 13.6%
Sochaux Win 28.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Metz1.73
Sochaux1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Metz Metz
WWDLW
36 GF / 23 GA
Sochaux Sochaux
WLDWL
12 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
2.12
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
14
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
5
4
Shots on Goal
2.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Metz Metz 17 matches
Sochaux Sochaux 14 matches
Metz Statistic Sochaux
7 Wins 5
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 3
36 Goals For 12
23 Goals Against 16
2.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
14 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 9
11 Over 2.5 5
8 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 2.5
13.38 Total Shots 9
4.38 Corners 3.5
51.8% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Metz's more proactive style and Sochaux's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sochaux. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Metz Analysis

Metz are currently 9 in the standings with 10 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, while the 10:7 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Fall (5 goals), J. Deminguet (2 goals), T. Savanier (1 goals), with creative support from J. Deminguet (2 assists), T. Savanier (2 assists), F. Miguel (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sochaux Analysis

Sochaux sit 8 with 11 points after 8 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, while the 5:6 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Gomel (2 goals), S. Baghdadi (1 goals), M. Clairicia (1 goals), with creative support from B. Youssouf (1 assists), K. Djoco (1 assists), S. Agouzoul (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Metz won 6 times, Sochaux won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:3 from Metz's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Metz 4-2-3-1 / Sochaux 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Metz wins 6, draws 2, Sochaux wins 0

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 21:8 13 19
W D L W W
2 8 5 2 1 12:9 3 17
W W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
4 8 3 5 0 15:9 6 14
D D W D W
5 8 4 1 3 9:7 2 13
W W L L W
6 8 4 1 3 10:9 1 13
W L L W D
7 8 3 3 2 14:12 2 12
W W W D L
8 8 3 2 3 9:8 1 11
W W L D D
9 8 2 5 1 5:6 -1 11
D D W D D
10
Metz Home
8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
L D L W D
11 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D D
12 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D L
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
D W L W D
14 8 2 2 4 8:13 -5 8
L D W L W
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
L L L L D
16 8 0 6 2 4:6 -2 6
D L D D D
17 8 0 6 2 6:9 -3 6
L D D D D
18 8 1 2 5 10:17 -7 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3