FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Referee: J. Stinat
Metz
Match Timeline
Lorient
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Sadibou Sané
Metz
🟨
15'
Abdoulaye Faye
Lorient
🟨
23'
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Metz
24'
J. Makengo · Assist: A. Kouassi
Lorient
🔄
40'
N. Mbala ↔ G. Abuashvili
Metz
🟨
42'
Jean Victor Makengo
Lorient
🔄
62'
A. Faye ↔ I. Toure
Lorient
🔄
62'
D. Karim ↔ P. Pagis
Lorient
🔄
64'
G. Kvilitaia ↔ H. Diallo
Metz
🔄
65'
K. Kouao ↔ B. Stambouli
Metz
🔄
74'
A. Tosin ↔ B. Dieng
Lorient
🔄
74'
J. Makengo ↔ A. Avom
Lorient
🔄
76'
J. Gbamin ↔ B. Munongo
Metz
84'
B. Dieng · Assist: P. Pagis
Lorient
🔄
90+5'
P. Katseris ↔ Igor Silva
Lorient
90'
A. Avom · Assist: P. Pagis
Lorient
90'
N. Cadiou
Lorient

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Metz Win 6.2%
Draw 24.8%
Lorient Win 68.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Metz1.17
Lorient1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Metz Metz
WWDLW
35 GF / 76 GA
Lorient Lorient
WLDWL
56 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.56
2.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
17
BTTS Yes
19
22
Over 2.5
16
3.26
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Metz Metz 34 matches
Lorient Lorient 36 matches
Metz Statistic Lorient
4 Wins 13
7 Draws 13
23 Losses 10
35 Goals For 56
76 Goals Against 50
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
2.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
17 BTTS Yes 19
26 Over 1.5 31
22 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 10
3.26 Shots On Goal 4.14
10.18 Total Shots 12
4.12 Corners 3.56
49.5% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Metz expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lorient in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lorient having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lorient. Lorient carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 42 points while Metz sit 18 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Metz have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Metz Analysis

Metz sit 18 with 16 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 22 losses, together with goals at 32:72, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through G. Hein (8 goals), H. Diallo (4 goals), G. Tsitaishvili (3 goals), with creative support from G. Hein (7 assists), G. Tsitaishvili (2 assists), N. Mbala (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lorient Analysis

Lorient sit 9 with 42 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 44:49 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pablo Pagis (10 goals), Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (9 goals), A. Tosin (5 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (6 assists), Pablo Pagis (3 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Metz won 4 times, Lorient won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:28 from Metz's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Metz 4-2-3-1 / Lorient 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Metz 1, Lorient 3
H2H summary: Metz wins 4, draws 5, Lorient wins 6
Stats
Metz Metz
Lorient Lorient
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Goal 7
4 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
517 Total passes 466
465 Passes accurate 400
0.67 expected_goals 2.00
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Metz
Formation
Lorient
P. Sy
P. Sy
K. Kouao
K. Kouao
S. Sane
S. Sane
T. Yegbe
T. Yegbe
B. Sarr
B. Sarr
J. Gbamin
J. Gbamin
J. Deminguet
J. Deminguet
N. Mbala
N. Mbala
G. Hein
G. Hein
G. Tsitaishvili
G. Tsitaishvili
G. Kvilitaia
G. Kvilitaia
Y. Mvogo
Y. Mvogo
N. Adjei
N. Adjei
M. Talbi
M. Talbi
A. Faye
A. Faye
P. Katseris
P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
L. Abergel
A. Kouassi
🎯
A. Kouassi
J. Makengo
J. Makengo
D. Karim
D. Karim
A. Tosin
A. Tosin
Metz 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
61
P. Sy
G
39
K. Kouao
↓ 65'
D
38
S. Sane
🟨 9'
D
15
T. Yegbe
D
70
B. Sarr
D
5
J. Gbamin
↓ 76'
M
20
J. Deminguet
M
34
N. Mbala
↓ 40'
M
10
G. Hein
M
7
G. Tsitaishvili
🟨 23'
M
11
G. Kvilitaia
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Fischer
G
2
M. Colin
D
21
B. Stambouli
↑ 65'
M
97
F. Ballo-Toure
D
30
H. Diallo
↑ 64'
F
4
U. Mboula
D
12
A. Toure
M
33
B. Munongo
↑ 76'
M
9
G. Abuashvili
↑ 40'
F
Lorient 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
38
Y. Mvogo
G
32
N. Adjei
D
3
M. Talbi
D
25
A. Faye
↓ 62' 🟨 15'
D
77
P. Katseris
↓ 90+5'
M
8
N. Cadiou
⚽ 90'
M
6
L. Abergel
M
43
A. Kouassi
🎯 24'
M
17
J. Makengo
⚽ 24' ↓ 74' 🟨 42'
F
29
D. Karim
↓ 62'
F
15
A. Tosin
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
21
B. Kamara
G
2
Igor Silva
↑ 90+5'
D
12
B. Dieng
⚽ 84' ↑ 74'
F
62
A. Avom
⚽ 90' ↑ 74'
M
19
I. Monnier
D
95
I. Toure
↑ 62'
D
9
M. Bamba
F
28
S. Soumano
F
10
P. Pagis
🎯 84' 🎯 90' ↑ 62'
F
Last matches: Metz
17.05.26
Lig
Metz
Nice
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lig
Metz
Monaco
1
2
L
29.04.26
Fri
Metz
Seraing United
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Metz
Le Havre
4
4
D
19.04.26
Lig
Metz
Paris FC
1
3
L
10.04.26
Lig
Metz
Marseille
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Metz
Nantes
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Metz
Rennes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Metz
Toulouse
3
4
L
08.03.26
Lig
Metz
Lens
0
3
L
01.03.26
Lig
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Metz
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
15.02.26
Lig
Metz
Auxerre
1
3
L
06.02.26
Lig
Metz
Lille
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Metz
Angers
0
1
L
25.01.26
Lig
Metz
Lyon
2
5
L
18.01.26
Lig
Metz
Strasbourg
1
2
L
11.01.26
Cou
Metz
Montpellier
0
4
L
04.01.26
Lig
Metz
Lorient
1
1
D
20.12.25
Cou
Metz
Biesheim
3
0
W
Last matches: Lorient
17.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
2
2
D
26.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
22.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
3
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
2
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
10.01.26
Cou
Lorient
Hauts Lyonnais
3
1
W
04.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
H2H: Metz vs Lorient
10.05.26
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
04.01.26
H2H
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
11.01.25
H2H
Lorient
Metz
0
0
D
21.09.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
2
L
26.11.23
H2H
Lorient
Metz
2
3
W
20.04.22
H2H
Lorient
Metz
1
0
L
12.12.21
H2H
Metz
Lorient
4
1
W
16.05.21
H2H
Lorient
Metz
2
1
L
04.10.20
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
1
W
31.03.19
H2H
Metz
Lorient
2
1
W
26.10.18
H2H
Lorient
Metz
0
0
D
22.04.17
H2H
Lorient
Metz
5
1
L
26.11.16
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
3
D
09.05.15
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
Last matches: Metz
02.05.26
Lig
Metz
Monaco
1
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Metz
Paris FC
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Metz
Nantes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Metz
Toulouse
3
4
L
01.03.26
Lig
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Metz
Auxerre
1
3
L
06.02.26
Lig
Metz
Lille
0
0
D
25.01.26
Lig
Metz
Lyon
2
5
L
11.01.26
Cou
Metz
Montpellier
0
4
L
13.12.25
Lig
Metz
Paris Saint Germain
2
3
L
28.11.25
Lig
Metz
Rennes
0
1
L
09.11.25
Lig
Metz
Nice
2
1
W
29.10.25
Lig
Metz
Lens
2
0
W
04.10.25
Lig
Metz
Marseille
0
3
L
28.09.25
Lig
Metz
Le Havre
0
0
D
14.09.25
Lig
Metz
Angers
1
1
D
17.08.25
Lig
Metz
Strasbourg
0
1
L
21.05.25
Lig
Metz
Reims
1
1
D
30.10.19
Cou
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
H2H at home: Metz
10.05.26
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
21.09.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
2
L
12.12.21
H2H
Metz
Lorient
4
1
W
04.10.20
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
1
W
31.03.19
H2H
Metz
Lorient
2
1
W
26.11.16
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
3
D
09.05.15
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
Last matches: Lorient
02.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
2
2
D
12.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
3
D
07.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
24.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
2
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
10.01.26
Cou
Lorient
Hauts Lyonnais
3
1
W
20.12.25
Cou
Lorient
Gosier
7
0
W
14.12.25
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
1
1
D
02.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Lens
0
3
L
26.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Angers
0
2
L
03.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
0
2
L
21.09.25
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
1
1
D
12.09.25
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
0
4
L
17.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
0
1
L
H2H away: Lorient
10.05.26
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
W
21.09.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
Metz
Lorient
1
2
W
12.12.21
H2H
Metz
Lorient
4
1
L
04.10.20
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
1
L
31.03.19
H2H
Metz
Lorient
2
1
L
26.11.16
H2H
Metz
Lorient
3
3
D
09.05.15
H2H
Metz
Lorient
0
4
W

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18
Metz Home
34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Metz 1 missing
-
J. Mangondo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Lorient 3 missing
-
T. Le Bris
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Meite
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
D. Yongwa
Missing Fixture Heel Injury
OUT