KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
MCF Win 26%
Draw 15.6%
Soy United Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
MCF0.65
Soy United0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
MCF MCF
WWDLW
17 GF / 31 GA
Soy United Soy United
WLDWL
26 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.59
Average Goals Scored
0.87
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
8
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MCF MCF 29 matches
Soy United Soy United 30 matches
MCF Statistic Soy United
6 Wins 12
8 Draws 6
15 Losses 12
17 Goals For 26
31 Goals Against 22
0.59 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
8 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 1
11 Clean Sheets 14
16 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Soy United's more proactive style and MCF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Soy United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Soy United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 42 points while MCF sit 19 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Soy United having the stronger overall control.

MCF Analysis

MCF sit 19 with 23 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 16 defeats with a 17:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Soy United Analysis

Soy United sit 9 with 42 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 26:22 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, MCF won 0 times, Soy United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from MCF's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
H2H summary: MCF wins 0, draws 1, Soy United wins 1
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
Last matches: Soy United
13.06.26
Sup
Soy United
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Soy United
MOFA
0
0
D
01.06.26
Sup
Soy United
Equity Bank
0
1
L
28.05.26
Sup
Soy United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
24.05.26
Sup
Soy United
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
17.05.26
Sup
Soy United
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
06.05.26
Sup
Soy United
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
19.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
12.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
04.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Mwatate United
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Gucha Stars
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Migori Youth
2
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Talanta
0
0
D
01.03.26
Sup
Soy United
3K
1
2
L
22.02.26
Sup
Soy United
Naivas
0
1
L
14.02.26
Sup
Soy United
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
01.02.26
Sup
Soy United
Migori Youth
0
0
D
28.01.26
Sup
Soy United
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
H2H: MCF vs Soy United
02.05.26
H2H
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
14.12.25
H2H
Soy United
MCF
1
0
L
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
21.12.25
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
17.12.25
Sup
MCF
3K
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
08.11.25
Sup
MCF
MOFA
1
0
W
01.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
25.10.25
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
L
27.09.25
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
H2H at home: MCF
02.05.26
H2H
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
Last matches: Soy United
13.06.26
Sup
Soy United
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Soy United
Equity Bank
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Soy United
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
04.04.26
Sup
Soy United
Mwatate United
2
0
W
22.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Gucha Stars
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Soy United
Migori Youth
2
3
L
01.03.26
Sup
Soy United
3K
1
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Soy United
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
21.12.25
Sup
Soy United
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
18.12.25
Sup
Soy United
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
07.12.25
Sup
Soy United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
26.11.25
Sup
Soy United
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Soy United
Talanta
1
2
L
08.11.25
Sup
Soy United
Naivas
1
2
L
03.11.25
Sup
Soy United
MOFA
1
1
D
26.10.25
Sup
Soy United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
H2H away: Soy United
02.05.26
H2H
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Home
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation