KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
MCF Win 34.8%
Draw 15.5%
Nzoia Sugar Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
MCF0.72
Nzoia Sugar1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
MCF MCF
WWDLW
18 GF / 34 GA
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WLDWL
33 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.58
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MCF MCF 31 matches
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 32 matches
MCF Statistic Nzoia Sugar
6 Wins 10
9 Draws 14
16 Losses 8
18 Goals For 33
34 Goals Against 30
0.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
9 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 15
17 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nzoia Sugar's more proactive style and MCF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nzoia Sugar having the stronger overall control. Nzoia Sugar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 44 points while MCF sit 19 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nzoia Sugar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

MCF Analysis

MCF approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 24 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 17 defeats with a 18:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

Nzoia Sugar are currently 11 in the standings with 44 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 14 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, MCF won 2 times, Nzoia Sugar won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from MCF's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
H2H summary: MCF wins 2, draws 1, Nzoia Sugar wins 1
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
H2H: MCF vs Nzoia Sugar
17.05.26
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
03.12.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
0
D
12.04.25
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
W
05.02.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
4
0
L
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
21.12.25
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
17.12.25
Sup
MCF
3K
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
08.11.25
Sup
MCF
MOFA
1
0
W
01.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
25.10.25
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
L
27.09.25
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
H2H at home: MCF
17.05.26
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
12.04.25
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
W
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
12.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
4
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
0
D
07.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
W
29.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
15.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
29.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
12.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
04.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
2
2
D
H2H away: Nzoia Sugar
17.05.26
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
L
12.04.25
H2H
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Home
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation