KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
MCF Win 79.5%
Draw 14.1%
Mwatate United Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
MCF1.01
Mwatate United0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
MCF MCF
WWDLW
20 GF / 36 GA
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WLDWL
27 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
0.59
Average Goals Scored
0.77
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
10
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MCF MCF 34 matches
Mwatate United Mwatate United 35 matches
MCF Statistic Mwatate United
7 Wins 6
10 Draws 7
17 Losses 22
20 Goals For 27
36 Goals Against 57
0.59 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
10 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 24
10 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 10
13 Clean Sheets 4
18 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mwatate United having the stronger overall control. Mwatate United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mwatate United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

MCF Analysis

MCF sit 19 with 28 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 20:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mwatate United Analysis

Mwatate United sit 20 with 25 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 27:57 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, MCF won 3 times, Mwatate United won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:4 from MCF's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.6%)
H2H summary: MCF wins 3, draws 2, Mwatate United wins 1
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
H2H: MCF vs Mwatate United
01.06.26
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
0
W
12.10.25
H2H
Mwatate United
MCF
0
3
W
28.05.23
H2H
Mwatate United
MCF
1
1
D
04.02.23
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
2
D
24.07.22
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
0
1
L
05.02.22
H2H
Mwatate United
MCF
0
1
W
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
21.12.25
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
17.12.25
Sup
MCF
3K
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
08.11.25
Sup
MCF
MOFA
1
0
W
01.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
25.10.25
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
L
27.09.25
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
H2H at home: MCF
01.06.26
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
0
W
04.02.23
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
2
D
24.07.22
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
0
1
L
Last matches: Mwatate United
13.06.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
0
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
3
L
07.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
30.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
16.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
3K
1
1
D
25.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
1
3
L
28.09.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
0
1
L
H2H away: Mwatate United
01.06.26
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
0
L
04.02.23
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
2
2
D
24.07.22
H2H
MCF
Mwatate United
0
1
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Home
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation