KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
MCF Win 50.2%
Draw 7.9%
Fortune Sacco Win 41.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
MCF0.82
Fortune Sacco1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
MCF MCF
WWDLW
22 GF / 37 GA
Fortune Sacco Fortune Sacco
WLDWL
58 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.63
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
11
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MCF MCF 35 matches
Fortune Sacco Fortune Sacco 37 matches
MCF Statistic Fortune Sacco
8 Wins 17
10 Draws 9
17 Losses 11
22 Goals For 58
37 Goals Against 41
0.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
11 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 17
3 Over 3.5 12
13 Clean Sheets 15
18 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortune Sacco's more proactive style and MCF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fortune Sacco. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Fortune Sacco carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 60 points while MCF sit 18 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fortune Sacco having the stronger overall control.

MCF Analysis

MCF approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 34 points from 37 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 24:39, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortune Sacco Analysis

So far, Fortune Sacco have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 60 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 17 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 58:41 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, MCF won 1 times, Fortune Sacco won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from MCF's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
H2H summary: MCF wins 1, draws 2, Fortune Sacco wins 3
Last matches: MCF
07.06.26
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
Last matches: Fortune Sacco
07.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
27.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Equity Bank
0
4
L
22.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Talanta
3
4
L
17.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Migori Youth
1
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
3K
1
2
L
06.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Soy United
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mwatate United
1
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kisumu All Stars
2
1
W
05.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
3
3
D
22.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kabati Youth FC
9
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
21.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nairobi City Stars
2
3
L
15.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MOFA
0
1
L
01.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
2
D
25.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
2
W
H2H: MCF vs Fortune Sacco
13.06.26
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
29.10.25
H2H
Fortune Sacco
MCF
1
1
D
10.05.25
H2H
Fortune Sacco
MCF
2
1
L
11.12.24
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
3
0
W
02.06.23
H2H
Fortune Sacco
MCF
0
0
D
12.02.23
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
18.07.22
H2H
Fortune Sacco
MCF
2
0
L
05.12.21
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
Last matches: MCF
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
21.12.25
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
17.12.25
Sup
MCF
3K
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
08.11.25
Sup
MCF
MOFA
1
0
W
01.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
25.10.25
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
0
1
L
27.09.25
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
H2H at home: MCF
13.06.26
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
11.12.24
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
3
0
W
12.02.23
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
05.12.21
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
Last matches: Fortune Sacco
01.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
22.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Talanta
3
4
L
10.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
3K
1
2
L
06.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
28.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
3
3
D
07.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kabati Youth FC
9
0
W
21.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nairobi City Stars
2
3
L
01.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
2
D
25.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
2
W
10.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
12.12.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mwatate United
3
1
W
04.12.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Migori Youth
0
1
L
30.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Vihiga United FC
1
0
W
15.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MOFA
1
2
L
02.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Gucha Stars
3
2
W
25.10.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Equity Bank
1
0
W
05.10.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mombasa Elite
1
2
L
H2H away: Fortune Sacco
13.06.26
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
W
11.12.24
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
3
0
L
12.02.23
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
05.12.21
H2H
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Home
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation