UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rwamwanja stadium
Mbarara City
Match Timeline
SC Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
69'
C. Kamugisha
Mbarara City
71'
C. Lwanga
SC Villa
74'
C. Lwanga
SC Villa
81'
A. Otim
SC Villa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mbarara City Win 24%
Draw 0%
SC Villa Win 76%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mbarara City0.7
SC Villa1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mbarara City Mbarara City
WWDLW
22 GF / 39 GA
SC Villa SC Villa
WLDWL
35 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
0.54
15
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mbarara City Mbarara City 27 matches
SC Villa SC Villa 26 matches
Mbarara City Statistic SC Villa
5 Wins 14
9 Draws 7
13 Losses 5
22 Goals For 35
39 Goals Against 14
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 0.54
15 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by SC Villa's more proactive style and Mbarara City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. SC Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 52 points while Mbarara City sit 12 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward SC Villa having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SC Villa. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mbarara City Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Mbarara City have collected 24 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 22:39 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Kamugisha (6 goals), M. Kanyike (5 goals), H. Kitegenyi (2 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

SC Villa Analysis

SC Villa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 52 points after 27 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 38:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Ssebuufu (8 goals), N. Yiga (7 goals), A. Ssemakula (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Mbarara City won 3 times, SC Villa won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:30 from Mbarara City's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Mbarara City wins 3, draws 2, SC Villa wins 9
Last matches: Mbarara City
23.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
4
L
19.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
06.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
09.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
1
D
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
H2H: Mbarara City vs SC Villa
13.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
28.01.26
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
L
16.04.25
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
2
L
16.09.24
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
4
2
L
30.03.24
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
2
1
L
25.11.23
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
19.04.22
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
2
1
L
30.11.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
0
W
24.04.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
W
09.12.20
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
0
L
09.05.20
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
04.09.19
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
L
03.04.19
H2H
SC Villa
Mbarara City
2
1
L
03.11.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
W
28.04.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
1
D
Last matches: Mbarara City
19.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
03.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
28.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
1
L
17.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
1
1
D
03.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
0
1
L
H2H at home: Mbarara City
13.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
16.04.25
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
2
L
25.11.23
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
30.11.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
0
W
24.04.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
W
09.05.20
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
03.11.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
W
28.04.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
1
D
Last matches: SC Villa
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
1
0
W
31.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
2
L
H2H away: SC Villa
13.05.26
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
W
16.04.25
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
2
W
25.11.23
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
30.11.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
0
L
24.04.21
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
L
09.05.20
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
0
0
D
03.11.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
2
1
L
28.04.18
H2H
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
1
D