FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Orange Vélodrome
Referee: R. Buquet
Marseille
Match Timeline
Rennes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
P. Hojbjerg · Assist: M. Greenwood
Marseille
10'
A. Gouiri
Marseille
🔄
46'
S. Szymanski ↔ B. Embolo
Rennes
🟨
49'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Marseille
55'
P. Aubameyang · Assist: P. Hojbjerg
Marseille
🔄
67'
M. Tamari ↔ A. Nordin
Rennes
🔄
72'
I. Paixao ↔ A. Vermeeren
Marseille
🟨
76'
Amine Gouiri
Marseille
🟨
79'
Mahdi Camara
Rennes
🔄
79'
L. Blas ↔ N. Mukiele
Rennes
🔄
82'
P. Hojbjerg ↔ Q. Timber
Marseille
🔄
82'
T. Nnadi ↔ N. Kamissoko
Marseille
84'
E. Lepaul · Assist: A. Nordin
Rennes
🔄
88'
T. Weah ↔ B. Pavard
Marseille
🟨
90+5'
Benjamin Pavard
Marseille

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Marseille Win 34.9%
Draw 5.1%
Rennes Win 60%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.78
Rennes1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marseille Marseille
WWDLW
91 GF / 60 GA
Rennes Rennes
WLDWL
64 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
2.02
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
21
BTTS Yes
20
31
Over 2.5
26
5.71
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marseille Marseille 45 matches
Rennes Rennes 36 matches
Marseille Statistic Rennes
23 Wins 19
6 Draws 8
16 Losses 9
91 Goals For 64
60 Goals Against 51
2.02 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
21 BTTS Yes 20
35 Over 1.5 30
31 Over 2.5 26
18 Over 3.5 17
13 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 7
5.71 Shots On Goal 5.17
14.67 Total Shots 14.81
5.27 Corners 6.17
57.6% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rennes. Rennes look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Marseille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rennes in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rennes having the stronger overall control.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille sit 6 with 56 points after 33 league matches. The record of 17 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 60:44 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Greenwood (16 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Rennes Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 59 points from 33 games, Rennes bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 17 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 58:47, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Embolo (9 goals), Mousa Tamari (6 goals), L. Blas (5 goals), with creative support from Mousa Tamari (6 assists), Valentin Rongier (5 assists), Q. Merlin (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Marseille won 9 times, Rennes won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from Marseille's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Marseille 4-2-3-1 / Rennes 4-4-2
Missing players: Marseille 4, Rennes 3
H2H summary: Marseille wins 9, draws 2, Rennes wins 4
Stats
Marseille Marseille
Rennes Rennes
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
14
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
7
4 Corner Kicks 11
11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2
45% Ball Possession 55%
27 Total Shots 27
11 Shots on Goal 6
9 Shots off Goal 14
7 Blocked Shots 7
19 Shots insidebox 20
8 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 8
399 Total passes 463
329 Passes accurate 394
2.92 expected_goals 2.49
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Marseille
Formation
Rennes
G. Rulli
G. Rulli
T. Weah
T. Weah
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
F. Medina
F. Medina
Emerson
Emerson
T. Nnadi
T. Nnadi
P. Hojbjerg
🎯
P. Hojbjerg
M. Greenwood
🎯
M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
I. Paixao
I. Paixao
P. Aubameyang
P. Aubameyang
M. Silistrie
M. Silistrie
M. Nagida
M. Nagida
A. Ait Boudlal
A. Ait Boudlal
A. Rouault
A. Rouault
Q. Merlin
Q. Merlin
V. Rongier
V. Rongier
M. Tamari
M. Tamari
S. Szymanski
S. Szymanski
M. Camara
M. Camara
L. Blas
L. Blas
E. Lepaul
E. Lepaul
Marseille 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Rulli
G
22
T. Weah
↓ 88'
D
5
L. Balerdi
D
32
F. Medina
D
33
Emerson
D
6
T. Nnadi
↓ 82'
M
23
P. Hojbjerg
⚽ 2' 🎯 55' ↓ 82' 🟨 49'
M
10
M. Greenwood
🎯 2'
M
9
A. Gouiri
⚽ 10' 🟨 76'
M
14
I. Paixao
↓ 72'
M
17
P. Aubameyang
⚽ 55'
F
Substitutes
12
J. De Lange
G
27
Q. Timber
↑ 82'
M
11
E. Nwaneri
M
26
B. Nadir
M
18
A. Vermeeren
↑ 72'
M
72
H. Hamzaoui
D
78
E. Lago
F
71
N. Kamissoko
↑ 82'
M
28
B. Pavard
↑ 88' 🟨 90+5'
D
Rennes 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
50
M. Silistrie
G
18
M. Nagida
D
48
A. Ait Boudlal
D
24
A. Rouault
D
26
Q. Merlin
D
21
V. Rongier
M
11
M. Tamari
↓ 67'
M
17
S. Szymanski
↓ 46'
M
45
M. Camara
🟨 79'
M
10
L. Blas
↓ 79'
M
9
E. Lepaul
⚽ 84'
F
Substitutes
60
K. Belazzoug
G
70
A. Nordin
🎯 84' ↑ 67'
F
36
A. Seidu
D
77
Y. Zabiri
F
7
B. Embolo
↑ 46'
F
3
L. Brassier
D
65
N. Mukiele
↑ 79'
F
6
D. Cisse
M
69
H. Do Marcolino
F
Last matches: Marseille
10.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
3
L
26.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Nice
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Lorient
0
2
L
10.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lille
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lyon
3
2
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
03.02.26
Cou
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
24.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Lens
3
1
W
21.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Liverpool
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
Last matches: Rennes
17.07.26
Fri
Rennes
Guingamp
3
1
W
09.07.26
Fri
Rennes
Caen
1
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Rennes
Paris FC
2
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Rennes
Lyon
2
4
L
26.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Nantes
2
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Strasbourg
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Angers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Stade Brestois 29
4
3
W
22.03.26
Lig
Rennes
Metz
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Rennes
Lille
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Rennes
Nice
4
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Toulouse
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Auxerre
3
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Paris Saint Germain
3
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Lens
1
3
L
03.02.26
Cou
Rennes
Marseille
0
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
Rennes
Monaco
0
4
L
24.01.26
Lig
Rennes
Lorient
0
2
L
18.01.26
Lig
Rennes
Le Havre
1
1
D
11.01.26
Cou
Rennes
Chantilly
3
1
W
H2H: Marseille vs Rennes
17.05.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
W
03.02.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
15.08.25
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
1
0
L
17.05.25
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
4
2
W
11.01.25
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
1
2
W
17.03.24
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
2
0
L
21.01.24
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
1
1
D
03.12.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
W
05.03.23
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
0
1
W
20.01.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
W
18.09.22
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
1
D
14.05.22
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
2
0
L
19.09.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
W
10.03.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
W
16.12.20
H2H
Rennes
Marseille
2
1
L
Last matches: Marseille
26.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Nice
1
1
D
10.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lille
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lyon
3
2
W
14.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
2
D
03.02.26
Cou
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
24.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Lens
3
1
W
21.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Liverpool
0
3
L
04.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
2
L
14.12.25
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
0
W
29.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
25.11.25
UEF
Marseille
Newcastle
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
3
0
W
05.11.25
UEF
Marseille
Atalanta
0
1
L
29.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Angers
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
6
2
W
30.09.25
UEF
Marseille
Ajax
4
0
W
22.09.25
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
1
0
W
H2H at home: Marseille
17.05.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
W
03.02.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
17.05.25
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
4
2
W
03.12.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
W
20.01.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
W
18.09.22
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
1
D
19.09.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
W
10.03.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
W
Last matches: Rennes
03.05.26
Lig
Rennes
Lyon
2
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Strasbourg
3
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Rennes
Stade Brestois 29
4
3
W
08.03.26
Lig
Rennes
Nice
4
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Auxerre
3
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Rennes
Lens
1
3
L
03.02.26
Cou
Rennes
Marseille
0
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
Rennes
Monaco
0
4
L
11.01.26
Cou
Rennes
Chantilly
3
1
W
03.01.26
Lig
Rennes
Lille
2
0
W
06.12.25
Lig
Rennes
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
28.11.25
Lig
Rennes
Metz
1
0
W
07.11.25
Lig
Rennes
Paris FC
1
0
W
29.10.25
Lig
Rennes
Toulouse
2
2
D
05.10.25
Lig
Rennes
Le Havre
2
2
D
20.09.25
Lig
Rennes
Nantes
2
2
D
31.08.25
Lig
Rennes
Angers
1
1
D
24.08.25
Lig
Rennes
Lorient
0
4
L
17.05.25
Lig
Rennes
Marseille
2
4
L
03.05.25
Lig
Rennes
Toulouse
1
2
L
H2H away: Rennes
17.05.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
L
03.02.26
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
L
17.05.25
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
4
2
L
03.12.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
L
20.01.23
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
L
18.09.22
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
1
D
19.09.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
2
0
L
10.03.21
H2H
Marseille
Rennes
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Marseille 4 missing
-
N. Aguerd
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
G. Kondogbia
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
C. Egan-Riley
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
H. J. Traore
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Rennes 3 missing
-
P. Frankowski
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Jacquet
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
B. Samba
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT