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30.09.2025 19:00
Orange Vélodrome
Referee: A. Taylor
Marseille
Match Timeline
Ajax
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
I. Paixao · Assist: P. Aubameyang
Marseille
⚽
12'
I. Paixao · Assist: A. Vermeeren
Marseille
🔄
23'
Y. Regeer ↔ J. Mokio
Ajax
⚽
26'
M. Greenwood · Assist: P. Aubameyang
Marseille
🟨
34'
Lucas Rosa
Ajax
🔄
36'
F. Medina ↔ C. Egan-Riley
Marseille
🔄
46'
B. Nadir ↔ T. Weah
Marseille
🔄
46'
S. Berghuis ↔ O. Edvardsen
Ajax
⚽
52'
P. Aubameyang · Assist: I. Paixao
Marseille
🔄
55'
O. Wijndal ↔ A. Gaaei
Ajax
🔄
55'
Y. Baas ↔ J. Sutalo
Ajax
🔄
62'
I. Paixao ↔ A. Gomes
Marseille
🔄
62'
M. O'Riley ↔ P. Hojbjerg
Marseille
🟨
66'
Ko Itakura
Ajax
🟨
76'
Anton Gaaei
Ajax
🟨
79'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Marseille
🔄
82'
A. Vermeeren ↔ M. Murillo
Marseille
🔄
84'
M. Godts ↔ R. Moro
Ajax
🟨
88'
Nayef Aguerd
Marseille

Marseille vs Ajax Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Marseille Win 0%
Draw 0%
Ajax Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.57
Ajax1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marseille Marseille
WWDLW
13 GF / 7 GA
Ajax Ajax
WLDWL
14 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
3
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
4
4.86
Shots on Goal
6.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marseille Marseille 7 matches
Ajax Ajax 8 matches
Marseille Statistic Ajax
4 Wins 4
0 Draws 3
3 Losses 1
13 Goals For 14
7 Goals Against 9
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
3 BTTS Yes 5
4 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
4.86 Shots On Goal 6.75
13.57 Total Shots 15.25
6.29 Corners 6.38
56.6% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Marseille won 2 times, Ajax won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:6 from Marseille's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 5.67 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Marseille 4-2-3-1 / Ajax 4-3-3
H2H summary: Marseille wins 2, draws 1, Ajax wins 0

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32
Ajax Away
8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)