02.05.2026 14:00
Tony Bezzina Stadium
Referee: P. Farrugia
Marsaxlokk
Match Timeline
Naxxar Lions
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
27'
J. Kirby
Marsaxlokk
⚽
43'
Vitinho
Naxxar Lions
⚽
45'
J. Kirby
Marsaxlokk
🔄
46'
O. El Hasni ↔ Weder
Marsaxlokk
🔄
46'
C. Gauci ↔ N. Pahama
Naxxar Lions
🔄
46'
Vitinho ↔ E. Sanchez
Naxxar Lions
⚽
68'
N. Muscat
Marsaxlokk
🔄
69'
Theo Kruger ↔ F. Bugeja
Naxxar Lions
🔄
69'
N. Pace Cocks ↔ C. Kontchou
Naxxar Lions
🔄
69'
Rosiel ↔ O. Portelli
Naxxar Lions
🔄
75'
N. Muscat ↔ I. Christie-Davies
Marsaxlokk
🔄
75'
J. Kirby ↔ T. Caruana
Marsaxlokk
🔄
85'
U. Arias ↔ E. Attard
Marsaxlokk
🔄
85'
D. Simkus ↔ J. Vella
Marsaxlokk
⚽
90'
G. Costa Goncalves
Naxxar Lions

Marsaxlokk vs Naxxar Lions Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Marsaxlokk Win 75.8%
Draw 0%
Naxxar Lions Win 24.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marsaxlokk1.38
Naxxar Lions1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk
WWDLW
39 GF / 34 GA
Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions
WLDWL
39 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
18
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk 31 matches
Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 31 matches
Marsaxlokk Statistic Naxxar Lions
15 Wins 9
8 Draws 8
8 Losses 14
39 Goals For 39
34 Goals Against 48
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
18 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Marsaxlokk's more proactive style and Naxxar Lions's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Naxxar Lions having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Naxxar Lions.

Marsaxlokk Analysis

Marsaxlokk approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 28 points after 15 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a 19:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Dodo (12 goals), A. Majok (4 goals), N. Portelli (4 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Naxxar Lions Analysis

So far, Naxxar Lions have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 20 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vitinho (11 goals), G. Costa Goncalves (5 goals), Joao Moura (5 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Marsaxlokk won 5 times, Naxxar Lions won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:8 from Marsaxlokk's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Marsaxlokk wins 5, draws 4, Naxxar Lions wins 2

Standings

Premier League , Closing Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 4 0 20:7 13 25
W W W L W
2 11 6 4 1 16:4 12 22
W L L W W
3 11 5 4 2 12:12 0 19
L W W W W
4 11 5 3 3 20:18 2 18
L L D L D
5 11 4 5 2 16:7 9 17
L L W L L
6 11 5 2 4 14:12 2 17
L D L W L
7 11 4 4 3 10:11 -1 16
L D D W D
8 11 3 4 4 12:12 0 13
D D D L W
9 11 3 2 6 11:17 -6 11
L W D L D
10 11 2 4 5 13:15 -2 10
W L W D D
11 11 1 3 7 9:21 -12 6
L W W D D
12 11 1 1 9 7:24 -17 4
W D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round