UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium
Maroons
Match Timeline
Police
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
M. Oshaba
Maroons
17'
I. Mayanja
Maroons
38'
D. Bukenya
Police
90'
B. Nkuubi
Maroons

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
51.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Maroons Win 56%
Draw 0%
Police Win 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maroons0.97
Police1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maroons Maroons
WWDLW
20 GF / 18 GA
Police Police
WLDWL
36 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
7
BTTS Yes
16
6
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maroons Maroons 24 matches
Police Police 24 matches
Maroons Statistic Police
7 Wins 12
9 Draws 5
8 Losses 7
20 Goals For 36
18 Goals Against 28
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
7 BTTS Yes 16
11 Over 1.5 21
6 Over 2.5 14
2 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Police. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Police having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Maroons Analysis

Maroons sit 9 with 30 points after 24 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 18:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Asaba (4 goals), I. Mayanja (3 goals), R. Walugembe (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Police Analysis

Police are currently 6 in the standings with 41 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 32:26 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Ikamba (8 goals), L. Tezikya (5 goals), U. Kasumba (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Maroons won 5 times, Police won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:14 from Maroons's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Maroons wins 5, draws 4, Police wins 2
Last matches: Maroons
23.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
0
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
21.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Maroons
NEC
0
1
L
08.04.26
Pre
Maroons
BUL
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Express
4
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
Last matches: Police
23.05.26
Pre
Police
Kitara
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
Police
URA
2
1
W
16.04.26
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
2
1
W
08.04.26
Pre
Police
Express
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Police
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Police
BUL
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Police
Lugazi
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Police
URA
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
1
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
2
0
W
06.01.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
2
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
Police
BUL
3
1
W
10.12.25
Pre
Police
Lugazi
1
1
D
H2H: Maroons vs Police
25.04.26
H2H
Maroons
Police
3
1
W
29.10.25
H2H
Police
Maroons
2
1
L
06.05.25
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
W
19.12.24
H2H
Police
Maroons
1
2
W
06.05.20
H2H
Police
Maroons
0
0
D
02.11.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
1
W
03.04.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
2
D
04.11.18
H2H
Police
Maroons
2
2
D
11.05.18
H2H
Maroons
Police
0
1
L
07.11.17
H2H
Police
Maroons
2
2
D
12.04.16
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
W
03.11.15
H2H
Police
Maroons
2
2
D
Last matches: Maroons
19.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
0
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
08.04.26
Pre
Maroons
BUL
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
0
0
D
07.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
21.01.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
0
D
17.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Express
4
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
1
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Maroons
NEC
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
Maroons
Lugazi
3
0
W
05.11.25
Pre
Maroons
URA
0
0
D
22.10.25
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
0
0
D
H2H at home: Maroons
25.04.26
H2H
Maroons
Police
3
1
W
06.05.25
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
W
02.11.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
1
W
03.04.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
2
D
11.05.18
H2H
Maroons
Police
0
1
L
12.04.16
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
W
Last matches: Police
23.05.26
Pre
Police
Kitara
2
2
D
06.05.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
0
1
L
16.04.26
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
2
1
W
08.04.26
Pre
Police
Express
1
3
L
06.03.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
1
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Police
URA
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
1
4
L
16.12.25
Pre
Police
BUL
3
1
W
10.12.25
Pre
Police
Lugazi
1
1
D
19.11.25
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
06.11.25
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
1
W
24.10.25
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
2
L
18.10.25
Pre
Police
NEC
2
2
D
H2H away: Police
25.04.26
H2H
Maroons
Police
3
1
L
06.05.25
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
L
02.11.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
1
L
03.04.19
H2H
Maroons
Police
2
2
D
11.05.18
H2H
Maroons
Police
0
1
W
12.04.16
H2H
Maroons
Police
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League