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BRAZIL › SERIE C
17.10.2026 20:00

Maringá vs Ferroviária Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds 1.63
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
1.63 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
6.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Maringá Win 55.3%
Draw 17.8%
Ferroviária Win 26.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maringá1.26
Ferroviária1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maringá Maringá
WWDLW
38 GF / 32 GA
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WLDWL
32 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
14
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maringá Maringá 25 matches
Ferroviária Ferroviária 25 matches
Maringá Statistic Ferroviária
11 Wins 11
8 Draws 8
6 Losses 6
38 Goals For 32
32 Goals Against 22
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
14 BTTS Yes 9
19 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 11
5 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Maringá hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-2, so Ferroviária now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferroviária having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ferroviária. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Maringá Analysis

Maringá come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 30 points from 19 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats with goals at 32:30 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária enter this tie with a season profile built on 30 points from 19 matches, placing them 3 in their league. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses plus a goal ratio of 22:15, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Maringá won 3 times, Ferroviária won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Maringá's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
H2H summary: Maringá wins 3, draws 1, Ferroviária wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W D D L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D D L D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L D W W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W D D W L
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D D L W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D W D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D W L D L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
L D D W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation