FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: D. Antamo
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
SJK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
R. Monteiro · Assist: A. Bergvik
Mariehamn
🔄
28'
A. Stroud ↔ M. Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
33'
R. Monteiro ↔ A. Huttunen
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
A. Bostrom ↔ M. Suso
SJK
🔄
46'
A. Bergvik ↔ V. Widlund
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
O. Vaisto ↔ K. Nwanege
SJK
48'
N. Nurmi · Assist: F. Gyamfi
Mariehamn
🔄
61'
J. Streng ↔ E. Mastokangas
SJK
🟨
64'
F. Costantini
SJK
🔄
67'
A. Wilson ↔ Caio Araujo
SJK
🟨
68'
L. Richtner
Mariehamn
🟨
77'
E. Onuoha
SJK
🔄
79'
E. Onuoha ↔ L. Vesterbacka
SJK
🔄
86'
A. Larsson ↔ T. Jakobsen
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81.1%
Odds 1.46
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.44
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81.1%
1.46
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.44
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.63
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 9.5%
Draw 9.5%
SJK Win 81.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.92
SJK1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
14 GF / 47 GA
SJK SJK
WLDWL
30 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.61
Average Goals Scored
1.25
2.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
10
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
13
1.47
Shots on Goal
1.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 23 matches
SJK SJK 24 matches
Mariehamn Statistic SJK
1 Wins 6
7 Draws 8
15 Losses 10
14 Goals For 30
47 Goals Against 33
0.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
2.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
10 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 7
0 Clean Sheets 4
13 Failed To Score 8
1.47 Shots On Goal 1.63
4.53 Total Shots 4
2.32 Corners 1.74
25.8% Ball Possession 18.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward SJK. SJK carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 18 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and SJK in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SJK having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 5 points from 18 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 9:39, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

SJK Analysis

SJK approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 18 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 24:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Mastokangas (1 goals), with creative support from J. Streng (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 4 times, SJK won 11 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:30 from Mariehamn's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-2-3-1 / SJK 4-4-2
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 4, draws 0, SJK wins 11

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
SJK
Kevin Lund
Kevin Lund
Ludvig Richtnér
Ludvig Richtnér
Noah Nurmi
Noah Nurmi
Foster Gyamfi
🎯
Foster Gyamfi
Aaro Soiniemi
Aaro Soiniemi
Jonathan Svedberg
Jonathan Svedberg
Jelle van der Heyden
Jelle van der Heyden
Rui Monteiro
Rui Monteiro
Arvid Bergvik
🎯
Arvid Bergvik
Adam Stroud
Adam Stroud
Adam Larsson
Adam Larsson
Roope Paunio
Roope Paunio
Salim Giabo Yussif
Salim Giabo Yussif
Facundo Constantini
Facundo Constantini
Oskari Väistö
Oskari Väistö
Murilo
Murilo
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
Aapo Bostrom
Aapo Bostrom
Armaan Wilson
Armaan Wilson
Eetu Mömmö
Eetu Mömmö
Jeremiah Streng
Jeremiah Streng
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kevin Lund
G
4
Ludvig Richtnér
🟨 68'
D
2
Noah Nurmi
⚽ 48'
D
15
Foster Gyamfi
🎯 48'
D
3
Aaro Soiniemi
D
11
Jonathan Svedberg
M
8
Jelle van der Heyden
M
22
Rui Monteiro
⚽ 18' ↓ 33'
M
14
Arvid Bergvik
🎯 18' ↓ 46'
M
18
Adam Stroud
↓ 28'
M
7
Adam Larsson
↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
64
Marlo Hyvonen
↑ 28'
M
16
Anttoni Huttunen
↑ 33'
M
23
Viktor Widlund
↑ 46'
D
19
Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
M
32
Matias Riikonen
G
24
Otto Pajunen
D
5
Tuomas Koivisto
D
9
Wille Nuñez
F
43
Leo Andersson
F
SJK 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Roope Paunio
G
6
Salim Giabo Yussif
D
2
Facundo Constantini
🟨 64'
D
5
Oskari Väistö
↓ 46'
D
14
Murilo
M
31
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
↓ 79' 🟨 77'
M
8
Aapo Bostrom
↓ 46'
M
23
Armaan Wilson
↓ 67'
M
15
Eetu Mömmö
D
9
Jeremiah Streng
↓ 61'
F
7
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
F
Substitutes
28
Karlson Nwanege
↑ 46'
D
47
Muhammed Suso
↑ 46'
M
19
Elias Mastokangas
↑ 61'
M
42
Caio Araújo
M
22
Leon Vesterbacka
↑ 79'
M
35
Johannes Viitala
G
26
Jaakko Moisio
D
17
Vertti Hänninen
M
51
Aziz Cisse
F
Last matches: Mariehamn
09.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
2
L
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
Last matches: SJK
07.08.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
2
D
03.08.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
3
0
W
24.07.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
2
L
18.07.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
0
1
L
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
H2H: Mariehamn vs SJK
10.04.26
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
L
28.06.25
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
4
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
1
2
L
21.07.24
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
4
L
31.05.24
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
0
2
W
16.03.24
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
2
1
L
26.08.23
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
3
2
L
11.06.23
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
2
L
18.03.23
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
1
2
W
11.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
0
W
21.05.22
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
1
0
L
30.06.21
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
L
24.06.21
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
1
L
18.10.20
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
3
L
17.07.20
H2H
SJK
Mariehamn
1
2
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
19.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
1
2
L
21.07.24
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
4
L
11.06.23
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
2
L
11.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
0
W
24.06.21
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
1
L
18.10.20
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
3
L
Last matches: SJK
24.07.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
14.03.26
Fri
SJK
Gnistan
3
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
SJK
KI Klaksvik
0
2
L
H2H away: SJK
19.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
1
2
W
21.07.24
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
4
W
11.06.23
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
2
W
11.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
0
L
24.06.21
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
0
1
W
18.10.20
H2H
Mariehamn
SJK
2
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.46
Draw 4.95
Home 5.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 1.89
Draw 2.79
Home 5.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 2.75 1.54
Over 3.0 1.68
Over 3.25 1.91
Over 3.5 2.12
Over 3.75 2.41
Over 4.5 3.53
Over 5.5 6.49
Under 1.5 5.97
Under 2.5 2.80
Under 2.75 2.53
Under 3.0 2.24
Under 3.25 1.94
Under 3.5 1.75
Under 3.75 1.59
Under 4.5 1.30
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.42
Draw 4.33
Home 6.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 1.91
Draw 2.75
Home 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.73
Draw 3.00
Home 5.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.44
Draw 4.80
Home 6.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 1.89
Draw 2.57
Home 5.63
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.71
Draw 3.12
Home 5.23
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.07
Over 1.75 1.09
Over 2.0 1.12
Over 2.25 1.25
Over 2.5 1.38
Over 2.75 1.48
Over 3.0 1.61
Over 3.25 1.87
Over 3.5 2.08
Over 3.75 2.31
Over 4.0 2.77
Over 4.25 3.03
Over 4.5 3.30
Over 4.75 4.04
Over 5.0 5.35
Over 5.25 5.74
Over 5.5 6.05
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 50.00
Under 0.5 15.50
Under 1.0 11.50
Under 1.5 5.75
Under 1.75 5.24
Under 2.0 4.75
Under 2.25 3.28
Under 2.5 2.64
Under 2.75 2.41
Under 3.0 2.13
Under 3.25 1.90
Under 3.5 1.72
Under 3.75 1.52
Under 4.0 1.37
Under 4.25 1.29
Under 4.5 1.25
Under 4.75 1.16
Under 5.0 1.09
Under 5.25 1.07
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.46
Draw 4.60
Home 5.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 1.84
Draw 2.55
Home 4.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.74
Draw 3.15
Home 4.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.0 1.15
Over 2.25 1.29
Over 2.5 1.42
Over 2.75 1.50
Over 3.0 1.65
Over 3.25 1.87
Over 3.5 2.08
Over 3.75 2.38
Over 4.0 2.85
Over 4.25 3.15
Over 4.5 3.40
Over 4.75 4.10
Over 5.0 5.40
Under 1.5 5.20
Under 2.0 4.40
Under 2.25 3.15
Under 2.5 2.60
Under 2.75 2.33
Under 3.0 2.06
Under 3.25 1.80
Under 3.5 1.64
Under 3.75 1.50
Under 4.0 1.35
Under 4.25 1.30
Under 4.5 1.26
Under 4.75 1.18
Under 5.0 1.11

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8 20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9 20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10
SJK Away
20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)